气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab4d33
	Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave
	Mecking J.V.; Jennifer.mecking@noc.ac.uk; Drijfhout S.S.; Hirschi J.J.-M.; Blaker A.T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:11
英文摘要	During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, suggesting potential for predictability. Here we show, by using a high-resolution climate model, that ocean temperature anomalies, in combination with matching atmospheric and sea-ice initial conditions were key to the development of the 2015 European heatwave. In a series of 30-member ensemble simulations we test different combinations of ocean temperature and salinity initial states versus non-initialised climatology, mediated in both ensembles by different atmospheric/sea-ice initial conditions, using a non-standard initialisation method without data-assimilation. With the best combination of the initial ocean, and matching atmosphere/sea-ice initial conditions, the ensemble mean temperature response over central Europe in this set-up equals 60% of the observed anomaly, with 6 out of 30 ensemble-members showing similar, or even larger surface air temperature anomalies than observed. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	2015 cold blob; 2015 heatwave; European summer; North Atlantic SST; seasonal predictions
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Climate models; Climatology; Sea ice; Surface waters; 2015 cold blob; 2015 heatwave; European summer; North Atlantic; Seasonal prediction; Oceanography; air temperature; air-sea interaction; climate prediction; correlation; salinity; sea ice; sea surface salinity; sea surface temperature; seasonality; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Central Europe
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154759
作者单位	Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, United Kingdom; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Netherlands; University of Utrecht, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mecking J.V.,Jennifer.mecking@noc.ac.uk,Drijfhout S.S.,et al. Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave[J],2019,14(11).
APA	Mecking J.V.,Jennifer.mecking@noc.ac.uk,Drijfhout S.S.,Hirschi J.J.-M.,&Blaker A.T..(2019).Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave.Environmental Research Letters,14(11).
MLA	Mecking J.V.,et al."Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave".Environmental Research Letters 14.11(2019).