气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Large changes in Great Britain's vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab492b
	Large changes in Great Britain's vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change
	Ritchie P.D.L.; Harper A.B.; Smith G.S.; Kahana R.; Kendon E.J.; Lewis H.; Fezzi C.; Halleck-Vega S.; Boulton C.A.; Bateman I.J.; Lenton T.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:11
英文摘要	The impact of climate change on vegetation including agricultural production has been the focus of many studies. Climate change is expected to have heterogeneous effects across locations globally, and the diversity of land uses characterising Great Britain (GB) presents a unique opportunity to test methods for assessing climate change effects and impacts. GB is a relatively cool and damp country, hence, the warmer and generally drier growing season conditions projected for the future are expected to increase arable production. Here we use state-of-the-art, kilometre-scale climate change scenarios to drive a land surface model (JULES; Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) and an ECOnometric AGricultural land use model (ECO-AG). Under unmitigated climate change, by the end of the century, the growing season in GB is projected to get >5 °C warmer and 140 mm drier on average. Rising levels of atmospheric CO2 are predicted to counteract the generally negative impacts of climate change on vegetation productivity in JULES. Given sufficient precipitation, warming favours higher value arable production over grassland agriculture, causing a predicted westward expansion of arable farming in ECO-AG. However, drying in the East and Southeast, without any CO2 fertilisation effect, is severe enough to cause a predicted reversion from arable to grassland farming. Irrigation, if implemented, could maintain this land in arable production. However, the predicted irrigation demand of ∼200 mm (per growing season) in many locations is comparable to annual predicted runoff, potentially demanding large-scale redistribution of water between seasons and/or across the country. The strength of the CO2 fertilisation effect emerges as a crucial uncertainty in projecting the impact of climate change on GB vegetation, especially farming land-use decisions. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	arable production; GB; RCP8.5; unmitigated climate change; vegetation productivity
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agricultural robots; Carbon dioxide; Climate models; Irrigation; Land use; Productivity; Testing; Vegetation; Agricultural land use; Agricultural productions; Climate change scenarios; Heterogeneous effects; Land surface modeling; Land-use decisions; RCP8.5; Vegetation productivity; Climate change; agricultural production; arable farming; global perspective; grassland; growing season; land use change; prediction; runoff; seasonality; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154748
作者单位	Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom; College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Laver Building, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Laver Building, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom; Land Environment Economics and Policy Institute, University of Exeter Business School, Xfi Building, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4PU, United Kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; Department of Economics and Management, University of Trento, via Vigilio Inama 5, Trento, I-38122, Italy; Wageningen University and Research, Leeuwenborch Building, Hollandseweg 1, Wageningen, 6706KN, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ritchie P.D.L.,Harper A.B.,Smith G.S.,et al. Large changes in Great Britain's vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change[J],2019,14(11).
APA	Ritchie P.D.L..,Harper A.B..,Smith G.S..,Kahana R..,Kendon E.J..,...&Lenton T.M..(2019).Large changes in Great Britain's vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change.Environmental Research Letters,14(11).
MLA	Ritchie P.D.L.,et al."Large changes in Great Britain's vegetation and agricultural land-use predicted under unmitigated climate change".Environmental Research Letters 14.11(2019).