气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aaf03d
	Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming
	Phillips T.J.; Bonfils C.J.W.; Zhang C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	We investigate ensemble-mean ('consensus') values of resolution-weighted CMIP5 multi-model simulations of 1976-2005 summer regional hydroclimates, and of their projected 2070-2099 changes under three progressively more severe representative concentration pathways greenhouse scenarios. Uncertainties in these consensus values are estimated from the cross-ensemble scatter. We analyze differences among 30 year present-day and future consensus summer hydroclimates that are averaged over three disparate regions of the United States: the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, the arid Southwest, and the humid Southeast. Our study considers the impact of several scenarios of greenhouse forcing on the regional averages of both single hydroclimatic variables and on ratios of variables which are indicative of continental drying, as well as the partitioning of surface moisture or available energy into their respective subcomponents. In all three study regions, there is a projected robust increase in surface temperature as the severity of the greenhouse scenario increases; but the regional-average hydroclimatic changes are comparatively uncertain, and often are not proportional to the change in surface warming. There is, however, a projected robust increase in continental drying that is manifested by several complementary measures, but that differs in magnitude by region. The prospect of future continental aridification should be viewed with some caution, however, since it may be a result of various shortcomings in current-generation climate models or in the specified greenhouse scenarios. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate modeling; ensemble averaging; greenhouse warming; hydroclimatic change
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Electric power system interconnection; Greenhouses; Uncertainty analysis; Ensemble averaging; Greenhouse forcing; Greenhouse warming; Hydroclimatic; Hydroclimatic variables; Multi-Model Simulations; Southern great plains; Surface temperatures; Climate models; aridification; climate modeling; CMIP; concentration (composition); global warming; greenhouse effect; semiarid region; uncertainty analysis; Great Plains
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154724
作者单位	Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Livermore, CA 94550, United States; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Mail Code L-103, Livermore, CA 94550, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Phillips T.J.,Bonfils C.J.W.,Zhang C.. Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming[J],2019,14(1).
APA	Phillips T.J.,Bonfils C.J.W.,&Zhang C..(2019).Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming.Environmental Research Letters,14(1).
MLA	Phillips T.J.,et al."Model consensus projections of US regional hydroclimates under greenhouse warming".Environmental Research Letters 14.1(2019).