气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aaf5e6
	Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost
	Streletskiy D.A.; Suter L.J.; Shiklomanov N.I.; Porfiriev B.N.; Eliseev D.O.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:2
英文摘要	Russian regions containing permafrost play an important role in the Russian economy, containing vast reserves of natural resources and hosting large-scale infrastructure to facilitate these resources' exploitation. Rapidly changing climatic conditions are a major concern for the future economic development of these regions. This study examines the extent to which infrastructure and housing are affected by permafrost in Russia and estimates the associated value of these assets. An ensemble of climate projections is used as a forcing to a permafrost-geotechnical model, in order to estimate the cost of buildings and infrastructure affected by permafrost degradation by mid-21st century under RCP 8.5 scenario. The total value of fixed assets on permafrost was estimated at 248.6 bln USD. Projected climatic changes will affect 20% of structures and 19% of infrastructure assets, costing 16.7 bln USD and 67.7 bln USD respectively to mitigate. The total cost of residential real estate on permafrost was estimated at 52.6 bln USD, with 54% buildings affected by significant permafrost degradation by the mid-21st century. The paper discusses the variability in climate-change projections and the ability of Russia's administrative regions containing permafrost to cope with projected climate-change impacts. The study can be used in land use planning and to promote the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for addressing the climate-change impacts of permafrost degradation on infrastructure and housing. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	arctic; climate change; economy; infrastructure; permafrost; Russia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Cost benefit analysis; Cost estimating; Economics; Housing; Land use; Permafrost; arctic; Climate change projections; economy; infrastructure; Infrastructure assets; Large scale infrastructures; Permafrost degradation; Russia; Climate change; adaptive management; assessment method; building; climate change; climate effect; economic development; exploitation; land use planning; natural resource; permafrost; strategic approach; Arctic; Russian Federation
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154705
作者单位	Department of Geography, The George Washington University, 2036 H St., NW, Washington, DC 20052, United States; Institute for Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences, Nakhimovskiy prosp., 47, Moscow, 117418, Russian Federation; Sochi Scientific Research Center, Russian Academy of Sciences, Sochi, Russian Federation; Russian New University, 22 Radio St., Moscow, 105005, Russian Federation; Institute of the Earth's Cryosphere, Tyumen Scientific Center, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, Tyumen, 625000, Russian Federation
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Streletskiy D.A.,Suter L.J.,Shiklomanov N.I.,et al. Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost[J],2019,14(2).
APA	Streletskiy D.A.,Suter L.J.,Shiklomanov N.I.,Porfiriev B.N.,&Eliseev D.O..(2019).Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost.Environmental Research Letters,14(2).
MLA	Streletskiy D.A.,et al."Assessment of climate change impacts on buildings, structures and infrastructure in the Russian regions on permafrost".Environmental Research Letters 14.2(2019).