气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Stratospheric initial conditions provide seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab0385
	Stratospheric initial conditions provide seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations
	Nie Y.; Scaife A.A.; Ren H.-L.; Comer R.E.; Andrews M.B.; Davis P.; Martin N.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:3
英文摘要	The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the regional manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), dominates winter climate variability in Europe and North America. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the winter NAO/AO has been demonstrated recently by dynamical prediction systems. However, the role of initial conditions in this predictability remains unknown. Using a latest generation seasonal forecasting system and reanalysis data, we show that the initial upper stratospheric zonal wind anomaly contributes to winter NAO/AO predictability through downward propagation of initial conditions. An initial polar westerly/easterly anomaly in the upper stratosphere propagates down to the troposphere in early winter, favoring a poleward/equatorward shift of the tropospheric mid-latitude jet. This tropospheric anomaly persists well into the late winter and induces the positive/negative phase of NAO/AO in the troposphere. Our results imply that good representation of stratospheric initial condition and stratosphere-troposphere coupling in models is important for winter climate prediction. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	GloSea5; NAO/AO; seasonal prediction; stratosphere
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climatology; Forecasting; Troposphere; Upper atmosphere; Arctic oscillations; Dynamical predictions; GloSea5; NAO/AO; North Atlantic oscillations; Seasonal forecasting; Seasonal prediction; Stratosphere-troposphere coupling; Climate models; Arctic Oscillation; climate prediction; forecasting method; North Atlantic Oscillation; prediction; seasonal variation; seasonality; stratosphere; stratosphere-troposphere interaction; troposphere; zonal wind; Europe; North America
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154677
作者单位	Laboratory for Climate Studies, CMA-NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geoscience, Wuhan, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nie Y.,Scaife A.A.,Ren H.-L.,et al. Stratospheric initial conditions provide seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations[J],2019,14(3).
APA	Nie Y..,Scaife A.A..,Ren H.-L..,Comer R.E..,Andrews M.B..,...&Martin N..(2019).Stratospheric initial conditions provide seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations.Environmental Research Letters,14(3).
MLA	Nie Y.,et al."Stratospheric initial conditions provide seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations".Environmental Research Letters 14.3(2019).