气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aaf8be
	Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections
	Pavlova V.; Shkolnik I.; Pikaleva A.; Efimov S.; Karachenkova A.; Kattsov V.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:3
英文摘要	An assessment is carried out of future changes in the agroclimatic conditions and crop productivity of spring wheat across the major grain-growing regions of European Russia. Calculations are conducted using a crop model driven by high-resolution, multiple realization regional climate change simulations under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. It has been shown that this scenario can lead to a future decrease in the yield of spring wheat by 9.1 ± 2.3% (2030-2039), 10.3 ± 3.2% (2050-2059), and 18.9 ± 2.8% (2090-2099) as compared with the yield at the end of XX century. In the southeastern part of the region, where there are major spring wheat areas, the projected yield change is expected to be -6.7 ± 3.0% by 2050-2059 and -21.5 ± 3.1% by 2090-2099. Fertile lands in the Central Black-Earth region (southwest of Moscow) will suffer even more due to a significant increase in the aridity and decrease of the growing season. There the projected drop in yield is simulated to be 15.8 ± 5.1% by 2050-2059 and 32.9 ± 3.4% by 2090-2099. However, the major losses in total production (gross yield) are expected to occur in the Privolzhsky Federal District where the spring wheat areas amount to 87% of the total cultivated area in the region. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	crop simulation model; large ensemble; probabilistic regional climate projection; wheat yield
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Crops; Cultivation; Climate projection; Crop productivity; Crop simulation model; High resolution; large ensemble; Regional climate changes; Regional climate projections; Wheat yield; Climate change; agricultural modeling; climate change; crop yield; numerical model; probability; regional climate; simulation; wheat; Federal District [Mexico]; Mexico City; Mexico [North America]; Moscow [(ADS) Russian Federation]; Russian Federation; Triticum aestivum
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154669
作者单位	National Research Institute of Agricultural Meteorology (NRIAM), Obninsk, Russian Federation; Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO), St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pavlova V.,Shkolnik I.,Pikaleva A.,et al. Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections[J],2019,14(3).
APA	Pavlova V.,Shkolnik I.,Pikaleva A.,Efimov S.,Karachenkova A.,&Kattsov V..(2019).Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections.Environmental Research Letters,14(3).
MLA	Pavlova V.,et al."Future changes in spring wheat yield in the European Russia as inferred from a large ensemble of high-resolution climate projections".Environmental Research Letters 14.3(2019).