气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aaf93b
	Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change
	Craig M.T.; Losada Carreño I.; Rossol M.; Hodge B.-M.; Brancucci C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:3
英文摘要	Climate change will likely impact wind and solar resources. As power systems increasingly shift towards wind and solar power, these resource changes will increasingly impact power system operations. We assess how power system operations will be affected by climate change impacts on wind and solar resources by generating wind and solar generation profiles for a reference period and five climate change projections. We then run a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to dispatch a high-renewable generator fleet with these profiles. For climate change projections, we use 2041-2050 output from five global climate models (GCMs) for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for Texas, our study system. All five GCMs indicate increased wind generation potential by 1%-4% under climate change in Texas, while three and two GCMs indicate increased and decreased solar generation potential, respectively, by up to 1%. Uneven generation potential changes across time result in greater changes in dispatched generation by fuel type. Notably, nuclear generation decreases across GCMs by up to 7%, largely in low-demand (winter) months when nuclear plants, which have a high minimum stable load, must reduce their generation to avoid overgeneration. Increased wind and/or solar generation result in reduced system CO2 emissions and electricity production costs across four of the five GCMs by 8-16 million tons and $216-516 million, or by 2% and 1%, respectively. Future research should assess the atmospheric and climate dynamics that underlie such changes in power system operations. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate change; power system operations; solar power; wind power
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Electric load dispatching; Scheduling; Solar energy; Solar power generation; Wind power; Climate change impact; Climate change projections; Electricity production costs; Global climate model; Nuclear generation; Power system operations; Renewable generators; Wind and solar power; Climate change; alternative energy; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; climate change; climate modeling; electricity generation; global climate; power generation; solar power; wind power; Texas; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154664
作者单位	National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 15013 Denver West Parkway, Golden, CO 80401, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Craig M.T.,Losada Carreño I.,Rossol M.,et al. Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change[J],2019,14(3).
APA	Craig M.T.,Losada Carreño I.,Rossol M.,Hodge B.-M.,&Brancucci C..(2019).Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change.Environmental Research Letters,14(3).
MLA	Craig M.T.,et al."Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change".Environmental Research Letters 14.3(2019).