气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change would lead to a sharp acceleration of Central African forests dynamics by the end of the century

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aafb81
	Climate change would lead to a sharp acceleration of Central African forests dynamics by the end of the century
	Claeys F.; Gourlet-Fleury S.; Picard N.; Ouédraogo D.-Y.; Tadesse M.G.; Hérault B.; Baya F.; Bénédet F.; Cornu G.; Mortier F.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:4
英文摘要	Impacts of climate change on the future dynamics of Central African forests are still largely unknown, despite the acuteness of the expected climate changes and the extent of these forests. The high diversity of species and the potentially equivalent diversity of responses to climate modifications are major difficulties encountered when using predictive models to evaluate these impacts. In this study, we applied a mixture of inhomogeneous matrix models to a long-term experimental site located in M'Baïki forests, in the Central African Republic. This model allows the clustering of tree species into processes-based groups while simultaneously selecting explanatory climate and stand variables at the group-level. Using downscaled outputs of 10 general circulation models (Gcm), we projected the future forest dynamics up to the end of the century, under constant climate and Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Through comparative analyses across Gcm versions, we identified tree species meta-groups, which are more adapted than ecological guilds to describe the diversity of tree species dynamics and their responses to climate change. Projections under constant climate were consistent with a forest ageing phenomenon, with a slowdown in tree growth and a reduction of the relative abundance of short-lived pioneers. Projections under climate change showed a general increase in growth, mortality and recruitment. This acceleration in forest dynamics led to a strong natural thinning effect, with different magnitudes across species. These differences caused a compositional shift in favour of long-lived pioneers, at the detriment of shade-bearers. Consistent with other field studies and projections, our results show the importance of elucidating the diversity of tree species responses when considering the general sensitivity of Central African forests dynamics to climate change. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate change; CORDEX-Africa; ecological guilds; M'Baïki experimental site; mixture of matrix models; tropical rainforest; variable selection
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Dynamics; Ecology; Forestry; Mixtures; Site selection; CORDEX-Africa; Ecological guild; Matrix model; Tropical rain forest; Variable selection; Climate change; climate change; climate effect; cluster analysis; ecological approach; forest dynamics; guild structure; long-term change; pioneer species; rainforest; recruitment (population dynamics); relative abundance; stand structure; tropical forest; Central African Republic
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154654
作者单位	AgroParisTech, 19 avenue du Maine, Paris, F-75732, France; Forêts et Sociétés, Cirad, F-34398 Montpellier, France; Forêts et Sociétés, Univ Montpellier, Cirad, Montpellier, France; Bureau for Economic Theory and Applications (Beta), AgroParisTech-Inra, 14 rue Girardet, Nancy, F-54000, France; Terra Teaching and Research Centre, Central African Forests, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liège, Passage des Déportés 2, Gembloux, B-5030, Belgium; Georgetown University, 3700 O Street NW, Washington, DC 20057, United States; Institut National Polytechnique Félix Houphouët-Boigny (Inphb), Yamoussoukro, Cote d'Ivoire; Ministry of Environment, Sustainable Devlopment, Waters, Forestry, Hunting and Fishery (Meddefcp), Rue Ambassadeur R. Guérillot, BP 830, Bangui, Central African Republic
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Claeys F.,Gourlet-Fleury S.,Picard N.,et al. Climate change would lead to a sharp acceleration of Central African forests dynamics by the end of the century[J],2019,14(4).
APA	Claeys F..,Gourlet-Fleury S..,Picard N..,Ouédraogo D.-Y..,Tadesse M.G..,...&Mortier F..(2019).Climate change would lead to a sharp acceleration of Central African forests dynamics by the end of the century.Environmental Research Letters,14(4).
MLA	Claeys F.,et al."Climate change would lead to a sharp acceleration of Central African forests dynamics by the end of the century".Environmental Research Letters 14.4(2019).