气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risks of precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: Does 1.5 °c or 2 °c global warming make a difference?

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aaff7e
	Risks of precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: Does 1.5 °c or 2 °c global warming make a difference?
	Ge F.; Zhu S.; Peng T.; Zhao Y.; Sielmann F.; Fraedrich K.; Zhi X.; Liu X.; Tang W.; Ji L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:4
英文摘要	Guided by the target of the Paris Agreement of 2015, it is fundamental to identify regional climate responses to global warming of different magnitudes for Southeast Asia (SEA), a tropical region where human society is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Projected changes in indices characterizing precipitation extremes of the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels (GWLs) exceeding pre-industrial conditions are analyzed, comparing the reference period (1976-2005) with an ensemble of CORDEX simulations. The results show that projected changes in precipitation extreme indices are significantly amplified over the Indochina Peninsula and the Maritime Continent at both GWLs. The increases of precipitation extremes are essentially affected by enhanced convective precipitation. The number of wet and extremely wet days is increasing more abruptly than both the total and daily average precipitation of all wet days, emphasizing the critical risks linked with extreme precipitation. Additionally, significant changes can also be observed between the GWLs of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, especially over the Maritime Continent, suggesting the high sensitivity of precipitation extremes to the additional 0.5 °C GWL increase. The present study reveals the potential influence of both 1.5 °C and 2 °C GWLs on regional precipitation over SEA, highlights the importance of restricting mean global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial conditions and provides essential information on manageable climate adaptation and mitigation strategies for the developing countries in SEA. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	CORDEX; extreme precipitation; Paris agreement; regional climate change; Southeast Asia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Developing countries; Precipitation (meteorology); Convective precipitation; CORDEX; Extreme precipitation; Indochina Peninsula; Pre-industrial conditions; Precipitation extremes; Regional climate changes; Southeast Asia; Global warming; climate change; extreme event; global warming; international agreement; marine environment; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; risk assessment; simulation; vulnerability; Indochina
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154643
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Plateau Atmosphere and Environ. Key Lab. of Sichuan Prov./Jt. Lab. of Climate and Environment Change, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME), Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Chongqing Climate Center, Chongqing, China; College of Communication Engineering, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ge F.,Zhu S.,Peng T.,et al. Risks of precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: Does 1.5 °c or 2 °c global warming make a difference?[J],2019,14(4).
APA	Ge F..,Zhu S..,Peng T..,Zhao Y..,Sielmann F..,...&Ji L..(2019).Risks of precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: Does 1.5 °c or 2 °c global warming make a difference?.Environmental Research Letters,14(4).
MLA	Ge F.,et al."Risks of precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: Does 1.5 °c or 2 °c global warming make a difference?".Environmental Research Letters 14.4(2019).