气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Vulnerability of sorghum production to extreme, sub-seasonal weather under climate change

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aafe19
	Vulnerability of sorghum production to extreme, sub-seasonal weather under climate change
	Eggen M.; Ozdogan M.; Zaitchik B.; Ademe D.; Foltz J.; Simane B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:4
英文摘要	In the tropics, extreme weather associated with global climate teleconnections can have an outsized impact on food security. In Ethiopia, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is frequently linked to drought-induced food insecurity. Many projections hold that El Niño events will become more frequent or more intense under climate change, suggesting that El Niño associated droughts may become more destructive. Agricultural vulnerability to extremes under climate change, however, is a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Sensitivity, in this context, can depend on sub-seasonal distribution of rainfall. This paper investigates crop sensitivity to sub-seasonal rainfall variability under climate change in a food insecure area of the Ethiopian highlands through analysis of process-oriented crop model results for the years 1981-2100 driven by 14 GCMs chosen for the ability to represent ENSO and rainfall characteristics of the study area. Further, adaptive capacity in the region is investigated with in-depth interviews and focus groups concerning the 2015 strong El Niño event. Crop model results for sorghum highlight that exposure and sensitivity to sub-seasonal extremes of low rainfall can diverge significantly from sorghum's response to seasonal drought. Even though climate change will bring generally warmer and wetter seasons to the study area, there is an increased occurrence of sub-seasonal failure of rains early in the rainy season which will likely have negative impacts on sorghum yield. In-depth interviews show that biophysical constraints significantly reduce farmer adaptive capacity to this type of sub-seasonal extreme. This work highlights the need to consider sub-seasonal weather when assessing climate change threats to agriculture, particularly for subsistence farmers in the developing world. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	adaptive capacity; agriculture; climate change impacts; crop modeling; extreme precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Atmospheric pressure; Climate models; Crops; Developing countries; Drought; Food supply; Rain; Adaptive capacity; Climate change impact; Crop model; Extreme precipitation; In-depth interviews; Rainfall characteristics; Seasonal distributions; Southern oscillation; Climate change; adaptive management; agricultural modeling; agriculture; climate change; climate effect; crop production; crop yield; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; extreme event; food security; global climate; precipitation assessment; questionnaire survey; seasonal variation; sorghum; teleconnection; vulnerability; weather; Ethiopian Highlands
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154639
作者单位	Department of Geography, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment (SAGE), University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States; Department of Horticulture, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia; Department of Applied and Agricultural Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; College of Development Studies, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Eggen M.,Ozdogan M.,Zaitchik B.,et al. Vulnerability of sorghum production to extreme, sub-seasonal weather under climate change[J],2019,14(4).
APA	Eggen M.,Ozdogan M.,Zaitchik B.,Ademe D.,Foltz J.,&Simane B..(2019).Vulnerability of sorghum production to extreme, sub-seasonal weather under climate change.Environmental Research Letters,14(4).
MLA	Eggen M.,et al."Vulnerability of sorghum production to extreme, sub-seasonal weather under climate change".Environmental Research Letters 14.4(2019).