气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The Affordable Clean Energy rule and the impact of emissions rebound on carbon dioxide and criteria air pollutant emissions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aafe25
	The Affordable Clean Energy rule and the impact of emissions rebound on carbon dioxide and criteria air pollutant emissions
	Keyes A.T.; Lambert K.F.; Burtraw D.; Buonocore J.J.; Levy J.I.; Driscoll C.T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:4
英文摘要	The Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule, the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) proposed replacement of the Clean Power Plan (CPP), targets heat rate improvements (HRIs) at individual coal plants in the US. Due to greater plant efficiency, such HRIs could lead to increased generation and emissions, known as an emissions rebound effect. The EPA Regulatory Impact Analysis for the ACE and other analyses to date have not quantified the magnitude and extent of an emissions rebound. We analyze the estimated emissions rebound of carbon dioxide (CO2) and criteria pollutants sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NO X ), using results from the EPA's power sector model, under the ACE in 2030 at model coal plants and at the state and national levels compared to both no policy and the CPP. We decompose emissions changes under a central illustrative ACE scenario and find evidence of a state-level rebound effect. Although the ACE reduces the emissions intensity of coal plants, it is expected to increase the number of operating coal plants and amount of coal-fired electricity generation, with 28% of model plants showing higher CO2 emissions in 2030 compared to no policy. As a result, the ACE only modestly reduces national power sector CO2 emissions and increases CO2 emissions by up to 8.7% in 18 states plus the District of Columbia in 2030 compared to no policy. We also find that the ACE increases SO2 and NO X emissions in 19 states and 20 states plus DC, respectively, in 2030 compared to no policy, with implications for air quality and public health. We compare our findings to other model years, additional EPA ACE scenarios, and other modeling results for similar policies, finding similar outcomes. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering the emissions rebound effect and its effect on sub-national emissions outcomes in evaluating the ACE and similar policies targeting HRIs. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	carbon standard; emissions rebound; power sector
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Air quality; Coal; Environmental Protection Agency; Nitrogen oxides; Sulfur dioxide; Coal-fired electricity; Criteria air pollutants; District of columbia; Emissions intensity; Heat rate improvement; Power sector; Regulatory impact analysis; US Environmental Protection Agency; Carbon dioxide; air quality; atmospheric pollution; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; coal-fired power plant; electricity generation; electricity industry; nitrogen oxides; pollution policy; sulfur dioxide; District of Columbia; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154629
作者单位	Resources for the Future, United States; Science Policy Exchange, United States; Center for Climate, Health and the Global Environment, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, United States; Boston University, United States; Syracuse University, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Keyes A.T.,Lambert K.F.,Burtraw D.,et al. The Affordable Clean Energy rule and the impact of emissions rebound on carbon dioxide and criteria air pollutant emissions[J],2019,14(4).
APA	Keyes A.T.,Lambert K.F.,Burtraw D.,Buonocore J.J.,Levy J.I.,&Driscoll C.T..(2019).The Affordable Clean Energy rule and the impact of emissions rebound on carbon dioxide and criteria air pollutant emissions.Environmental Research Letters,14(4).
MLA	Keyes A.T.,et al."The Affordable Clean Energy rule and the impact of emissions rebound on carbon dioxide and criteria air pollutant emissions".Environmental Research Letters 14.4(2019).