气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An assessment of the potential for natural flood management to offset climate change impacts

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/aafdbe
	An assessment of the potential for natural flood management to offset climate change impacts
	Kay A.L.; Old G.H.; Bell V.A.; Davies H.N.; Trill E.J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:4
英文摘要	Natural Flood Management (NFM) aims to work with natural processes to reduce flood risk, and can potentially contribute to integrated flood risk management (alongside engineering solutions) by providing landscape-based resilience to climate change impacts. Here, two approaches are used to assess the extent to which NFM could offset the impacts of climate change on floods in Great Britain. The first looks at specific catchments where there is quantitative evidence for the effect of NFM measures on peak flows. The second takes a broad-brush national view, assuming two potential levels of NFM reductions in peak flows. Both approaches use flood impacts derived from climate change projections for a range of future time-slices and emissions scenarios. The results show that NFM measures are much less likely to be able to offset the impacts of climate change for later time-slices and for higher emissions scenarios, but also that the chance of offsetting the impacts of climate change in any individual catchment will depend on its type (how sensitive it is to climatic changes) and its location (due to spatial variation in climatic changes). Confounding factors in the analysis include any time lag associated with the NFM reduction in peak flows, and different effects of NFM on peak flows of different return periods. It is also unclear whether there is any relationship between a catchment's type and its practical potential for implementing NFM, or the level of peak flow reduction that NFM could achieve; any such relationship could be critical in determining the overall potential for NFM to offset climate change impacts in different catchments. Although the focus here is Great Britain, a similar approach could be applied internationally. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate impacts; flood risk; Great Britain; NFM
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Catchments; Flood control; Floods; Risk management; Runoff; Climate change impact; Climate change projections; Climate impacts; Emissions scenarios; Engineering solutions; Flood risk management; Flood risks; Great Britain; Climate change; catchment; climate effect; flooding; hazard management; peak flow; quantitative analysis; spatial variation; United Kingdom
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154623
作者单位	Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kay A.L.,Old G.H.,Bell V.A.,et al. An assessment of the potential for natural flood management to offset climate change impacts[J],2019,14(4).
APA	Kay A.L.,Old G.H.,Bell V.A.,Davies H.N.,&Trill E.J..(2019).An assessment of the potential for natural flood management to offset climate change impacts.Environmental Research Letters,14(4).
MLA	Kay A.L.,et al."An assessment of the potential for natural flood management to offset climate change impacts".Environmental Research Letters 14.4(2019).