气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °c and 2.0 °c warming: A case study for Uttarakhand, India

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab0bce
	Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °c and 2.0 °c warming: A case study for Uttarakhand, India
	Kumari S.; Haustein K.; Javid H.; Burton C.; Allen M.R.; Paltan H.; Dadson S.; Otto F.E.L.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:4
英文摘要	In June 2013, Uttarakhand experienced a hydro-meteorological disaster due to a 4 d extreme precipitation event of return period more than 100 years, claiming thousands of lives and causing enormous damage to infrastructure. Using the weather@home climate modelling system and its Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts simulations, this study investigates the change in the return period of similar events in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer world, compared to current and pre-industrial levels. We find that the likelihood of such extreme precipitation events will significantly increase under both future scenarios. We also estimate the change in extreme river flow at the Ganges; finding a considerable increase in the risk of flood events. Our results also suggest that until now, anthropogenic aerosols may have effectively counterbalanced the otherwise increased meteorological flood risk due to greenhouse gas (GHG) induced warming. Disentangling the response due to GHGs and aerosols is required to analyses the changes in future rainfall in the South Asia monsoon region. More research with other climate models is also necessary to make sure these results are robust. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	1.5°Cand 2°Cof warming; climate modeling; extreme event attribution; extreme rain; flood; return period
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aerosols; Climate change; Climate models; Flood control; Greenhouse gases; Rain; Risk perception; Anthropogenic aerosols; Extreme events; Extreme precipitation events; Extreme rainfall; Greenhouse gas (GHG); Meteorological disasters; Pre-industrial levels; Return periods; Floods; climate modeling; environmental risk; extreme event; flood; greenhouse gas; hydrometeorology; rainfall; return period; river flow; India; South Asia; Uttarakhand
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154603
作者单位	School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kumari S.,Haustein K.,Javid H.,et al. Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °c and 2.0 °c warming: A case study for Uttarakhand, India[J],2019,14(4).
APA	Kumari S..,Haustein K..,Javid H..,Burton C..,Allen M.R..,...&Otto F.E.L..(2019).Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °c and 2.0 °c warming: A case study for Uttarakhand, India.Environmental Research Letters,14(4).
MLA	Kumari S.,et al."Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °c and 2.0 °c warming: A case study for Uttarakhand, India".Environmental Research Letters 14.4(2019).