气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Deforestation displaced: Trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d41
	Deforestation displaced: Trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition
	Pendrill F.; Persson U.M.; Godar J.; Kastner T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:5
英文摘要	While many developed countries are increasing their forest cover, deforestation is still rife in the tropics and subtropics. With international trade in forest-risk commodities on the rise, it is becoming increasingly important to consider between-country trade linkages in assessing the drivers of - and possible connections between - forest loss and gain across countries. Previous studies have shown that countries that have undergone a forest transition (and are now increasing their forest cover) tend to displace land use outside their borders. However, lack of comprehensive data on deforestation drivers imply that it has not been possible to ascertain whether this has accelerated forest loss in sourcing countries. To remedy this, we present a land-balance model that quantifies deforestation embodied in production of agricultural and forestry commodities at country level across the tropics and subtropics, subsequently tracing embodied deforestation to countries of apparent consumption using a physical, country-to-country trade model. We find that in the period 2005-2013, 62% (5.5 Mha yr-1) of forest loss could be attributed to expanding commercial cropland, pastures and tree plantations. The commodity groups most commonly associated with deforestation were cattle meat, forestry products, oil palm, cereals and soybeans, though variation between countries and regions was large. A large (26%) and slightly increasing share of deforestation was attributed to international demand, the bulk of which (87%) was exported to countries that either exhibit decreasing deforestation rates or increasing forest cover (late- or post-forest transition countries), particularly in Europe and Asia (China, India, and Russia). About a third of the net forest gains in post-forest transition countries was in this way offset by imports of commodities causing deforestation elsewhere, suggesting that achieving a global forest transition will be substantially more challenging than achieving national or regional ones. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	agriculture; deforestation; forest conservation policy; forest transition; forestry; land use change; trade
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Cereal products; Commerce; Conservation; Forestry; International trade; Land use; Palm oil; Petroleum prospecting; Risk assessment; Soybean oil; Timber; Tropics; Balance model; Developed countries; Forest conservation; Forest transition; Forestry products; International demand; Land-use change; Tree plantations; Deforestation; agroforestry; deforestation; forest cover; forest ecosystem; forestry; international trade; land use change; risk assessment; Asia; China; Europe; India; Russian Federation; Bos; Elaeis; Glycine max
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154596
作者单位	Division of Physical Resource Theory, Dept. of Space Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden; Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden; Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBIK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pendrill F.,Persson U.M.,Godar J.,et al. Deforestation displaced: Trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition[J],2019,14(5).
APA	Pendrill F.,Persson U.M.,Godar J.,&Kastner T..(2019).Deforestation displaced: Trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition.Environmental Research Letters,14(5).
MLA	Pendrill F.,et al."Deforestation displaced: Trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition".Environmental Research Letters 14.5(2019).