气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °c increase in global warming

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab1271
	Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °c increase in global warming
	Bhowmick M.; Sahany S.; Mishra S.K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:5
英文摘要	Using all ensemble members of NCAR CCSM4 for historical natural, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from CMIP5, we analyse changes in mean and extreme precipitation over the south Asian region for every 0.5 oC increase in global warming. An increase in mean annual precipitation is projected over majority of the south Asian region with increased levels of warming. Over Indian land, the spatially-averaged annual mean precipitation shows an increase in the range of ∼2-14 % based on the RCP scenario and level of warming. However, a decrease in mean annual precipitation is projected over northwest parts of the Indian sub-continent and the equatorial Indian Ocean with increased levels of warming. In general, we find multifold increase in the frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes over the Indian subcontinent and surrounding oceans. Over Indian land, frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes show up to three-fold increase under both RCP scenarios for global warming levels in the range of 1.5 oC-2.5 oC. With further increase in warming we find that the frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes could show a massive four- to six-fold increase over majority of Indian land. Notably, unlike the projected increase in the frequency of occurrence of daily precipitation extremes, the projected change in annual mean precipitation is found to be insignificant in a 1.5 oC warmer world, over majority of the south Asian region, under both RCP scenarios. Given the projected large increase in frequency of daily precipitation extremes with increased levels of warming, our study provides scientific support to the recommendations of the Paris Agreement of 2015. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	annual precipitation; extreme rainfall; global warming; south Asia
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Annual mean precipitation; Annual precipitation; Equatorial Indian Ocean; Extreme precipitation; Extreme rainfall; Indian subcontinents; Mean annual precipitation; South Asia; Precipitation (meteorology); ensemble forecasting; extreme event; international agreement; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; Indian Ocean; Indian Ocean (Equatorial); South Asia
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154592
作者单位	Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, IIT Delhi, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bhowmick M.,Sahany S.,Mishra S.K.. Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °c increase in global warming[J],2019,14(5).
APA	Bhowmick M.,Sahany S.,&Mishra S.K..(2019).Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °c increase in global warming.Environmental Research Letters,14(5).
MLA	Bhowmick M.,et al."Projected precipitation changes over the south Asian region for every 0.5 °c increase in global warming".Environmental Research Letters 14.5(2019).