气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The impact of climate change on fertility

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab0843
	The impact of climate change on fertility
	Casey G.; Shayegh S.; Moreno-Cruz J.; Bunzl M.; Galor O.; Caldeira K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:5
英文摘要	We examine the potential for climate change to impact fertility via adaptations in human behavior. We start by discussing a wide range of economic channels through which climate change might impact fertility, including sectoral reallocation, the gender wage gap, longevity, and child mortality. Then, we build a quantitative model that combines standard economic-demographic theory with existing estimates of the economic consequences of climate change. In the model, increases in global temperature affect agricultural and non-agricultural sectors differently. Near the equator, where many poor countries are located, climate change has a larger negative effect on agriculture. The resulting scarcity in agricultural goods acts as a force towards higher agricultural prices and wages, leading to a labor reallocation into this sector. Since agriculture makes less use of skilled labor, climate damage decreases the return to acquiring skills, inducing parents to invest less resources in the education of each child and to increase fertility. These patterns are reversed at higher latitudes, suggesting that climate change may exacerbate inequities by reducing fertility and increasing education in richer northern countries, while increasing fertility and reducing education in poorer tropical countries. While the model only examines the role of one mechanism, it suggests that climate change could have an impact on fertility, indicating the need for future work on this important topic. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate change; economics; education; fertility; inequality
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Behavioral research; Climate models; Developing countries; Economics; Education; Wages; Agricultural sector; Economic consequences; fertility; Global temperatures; Higher latitudes; inequality; Quantitative modeling; Tropical countries; Climate change; child mortality; climate change; demographic trend; education; equity; fertility; gender disparity; human behavior; longevity; nature-society relations; socioeconomic impact; wage gap
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154587
作者单位	Economics Department, Williams College, Williamstown, MA 01247, United States; Bocconi University, Milan, Italy; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy; School of Environment, Enterprise and Development, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada; Department of Philosophy, School of Arts and Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Economics Department, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, United States; Population Training and Studies Center, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, United States; Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, CA 94305, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Casey G.,Shayegh S.,Moreno-Cruz J.,et al. The impact of climate change on fertility[J],2019,14(5).
APA	Casey G.,Shayegh S.,Moreno-Cruz J.,Bunzl M.,Galor O.,&Caldeira K..(2019).The impact of climate change on fertility.Environmental Research Letters,14(5).
MLA	Casey G.,et al."The impact of climate change on fertility".Environmental Research Letters 14.5(2019).