气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab128a
	Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers
	Kamae Y.; Mei W.; Xie S.-P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:5
英文摘要	Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intense water vapor transports associated with extra-tropical cyclones, frequently bring heavy rainfalls over mid-latitudes. Over East Asia, landfalling ARs result in major socio-economic impacts including widespread floods and landslides; for example, western Japan heavy rainfall in July 2018 killed more than 200 people. Using results of high-resolution atmospheric model ensemble simulations, we examine projected future change in summertime AR frequency over East Asia. Different sea surface temperature (SST) warming patterns derived from six atmosphere-ocean coupled model simulations were assumed to represent uncertainty in future SST projections. The rate of increase in the frequency of landfalling ARs over summertime East Asia is on average 0.9% K-1 and is dependent on SST warming patterns. Stronger warming over the North Indian Ocean and South China Sea or weaker warming over the tropical central Pacific produce more frequent landfalling ARs over East Asia. These patterns are similar to the co-variability of SST, atmospheric circulation, and ARs over the western North Pacific found on the interannual time scale. The results of this study suggest that the natural disaster risk related to landfalling ARs should increase over East Asia under global warming and SSTs over the Indo-Pacific region holds the key for a quantitative projection. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	atmospheric river; ENSO; heavy rainfall; Indian Ocean capacitor; the North Pacific high
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Disasters; Global warming; Rain; Rivers; Storms; Tropics; Atmospheric circulation; ENSO; Extra-tropical cyclones; Heavy rainfall; High-resolution atmospheric models; Indian ocean; North Pacific; Sea surface temperature (SST); Oceanography; atmosphere-ocean coupling; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling; climate change; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; future prospect; global warming; midlatitude environment; ocean; precipitation intensity; sea surface temperature; socioeconomic impact; water vapor; Far East; Indian Ocean; Indian Ocean (North); Japan; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North); South China Sea
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154573
作者单位	Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan; Department of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, United States; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kamae Y.,Mei W.,Xie S.-P.. Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers[J],2019,14(5).
APA	Kamae Y.,Mei W.,&Xie S.-P..(2019).Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers.Environmental Research Letters,14(5).
MLA	Kamae Y.,et al."Ocean warming pattern effects on future changes in East Asian atmospheric rivers".Environmental Research Letters 14.5(2019).