气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Unpacking the climatic drivers of US agricultural yields

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab1e75
	Unpacking the climatic drivers of US agricultural yields
	Ortiz-Bobea A.; Wang H.; Carrillo C.M.; Ault T.R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:6
英文摘要	Understanding the climatic drivers of present-day agricultural yields is critical for prioritizing adaptation strategies to climate change. However, unpacking the contribution of different environmental stressors remains elusive in large-scale observational settings in part because of the lack of an extensive long-term network of soil moisture measurements and the common seasonal concurrence of droughts and heat waves. In this study, we link state-of-the-art land surface model data and fine-scale weather information with a long panel of county-level yields for six major US crops (1981-2017) to unpack their historical and future climatic drivers. To this end, we develop a statistical approach that flexibly characterizes the distinct intra-seasonal yield sensitivities to high-frequency fluctuations of soil moisture and temperature. In contrast with previous statistical evidence, we directly elicit an important role of water stress in explaining historical yields. However, our models project the direct effect of temperature - which we interpret as heat stress - remains the primary climatic driver of future yields under climate change. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate change; Crop yields; moisture; statistical model; temperature; United States
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Crops; Moisture; Plants (botany); Soil moisture; Temperature; Adaptation strategies; Crop yield; Environmental stressors; High frequency fluctuations; Land surface modeling; Soil moisture measurement; Statistical modeling; United States; Climate change
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154566
作者单位	Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States; Department of Business and Technology Management, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM 87801, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ortiz-Bobea A.,Wang H.,Carrillo C.M.,et al. Unpacking the climatic drivers of US agricultural yields[J],2019,14(6).
APA	Ortiz-Bobea A.,Wang H.,Carrillo C.M.,&Ault T.R..(2019).Unpacking the climatic drivers of US agricultural yields.Environmental Research Letters,14(6).
MLA	Ortiz-Bobea A.,et al."Unpacking the climatic drivers of US agricultural yields".Environmental Research Letters 14.6(2019).