气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Intensification of precipitation extremes in the world's humid and water-limited regions

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab1c8e
	Intensification of precipitation extremes in the world's humid and water-limited regions
	Donat M.G.; Angélil O.; Ukkola A.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:6
英文摘要	Changes in precipitation totals and extremes are among the most relevant consequences of climate change, but in particular regional changes remain uncertain. While aggregating over larger regions reduces the noise in time series and typically shows increases in the intensity of precipitation extremes, it has been argued that this may not be the case in water-limited regions. Here we investigate long-term changes in annual precipitation totals and extremes aggregated over the world's humid, transitional, and dry regions as defined by their climatological water availability. We use the globally most complete observational datasets suitable for the analysis of daily precipitation extremes, and data from global climate model simulations. We show that precipitation totals and extremes have increased in the humid regions since the mid-20th century. Conversely, despite showing tendencies to increase, no robust changes can be detected in the drier regions, in part due to the large variability of precipitation and sparse observational coverage particularly in the driest regions. Future climate simulations under increased radiative forcing indicate total precipitation increases in more humid regions but no clear changes in the more arid regions, while precipitation extremes are more likely to increase than to decrease on average over both the humid and arid regions of the world. These results highlight the increasing risk of heavy precipitation in most regions of the world, including water-limited regions, with implications for related impacts through flooding risk or soil erosion. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	arid regions; climate change; CMIP5; extremes; humid regions; observations; Precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Arid regions; Atmospheric radiation; Climate models; Floods; Precipitation (chemical); Annual precipitation; CMIP5; extremes; Global climate model simulations; Humid regions; observations; Precipitation extremes; Water-limited regions; Climate change
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154560
作者单位	Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Donat M.G.,Angélil O.,Ukkola A.M.. Intensification of precipitation extremes in the world's humid and water-limited regions[J],2019,14(6).
APA	Donat M.G.,Angélil O.,&Ukkola A.M..(2019).Intensification of precipitation extremes in the world's humid and water-limited regions.Environmental Research Letters,14(6).
MLA	Donat M.G.,et al."Intensification of precipitation extremes in the world's humid and water-limited regions".Environmental Research Letters 14.6(2019).