气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and 'attractiveness' across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab10a8
	Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and 'attractiveness' across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century
	Parfenova E.; Tchebakova N.; Soja A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:6
英文摘要	In the past, human migrations have been associated with climate change. As our civilizations developed, humans depended less on the environment, in particular on climate, because technological and economic development in the span of human history allowed us to adapt to and overcome environmental discomfort. Asian Russia (east of the Urals to the Pacific) is known to be sparsely populated. The population is concentrated along the forest-steppe in the south, with its comfortable climate and thriving agriculture on fertile soils. We use current and predicted climate scenarios to evaluate the climate comfort of various landscapes to determine the potential for human settlers throughout the 21st century. Climate change scenarios are taken from 20 CMIP5 general circulation models. Two CO2 Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP 2.6 representing mild climate change and RCP 8.5 representing more extreme changes, are applied to the large subcontinental territory of Asian Russia. The ensemble January and July temperature anomaly means and annual precipitation are calculated with respect to the baseline 1961-1990 climate. Three climate indices, which are important for human livelihood and well-being, are calculated based on January and July temperatures and annual precipitation: Ecological Landscape Potential, winter severity, and permafrost coverage. Climates predicted by the 2080s over Asian Russia would be much warmer and milder. Ensemble means do not show extreme aridity. The permafrost zone is predicted to significantly shift to the northeast. Ecological Landscape Potential would increase 1-2 categories from 'low' to 'relatively high' which would result in a higher capacity for population density across Asian Russia. Socio-economic processes and policy choices will compel the development that will lead to attracting people to migrate throughout the century. Therefore, understanding ecological landscape potential is crucial information for developing viable strategies for long-term economic and social development in preparation for climate migration and strategic adaptation planning. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Asian Russia; climate change; climate severity; Ecological landscape potential; human population density; permafrost
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Ecology; Economic and social effects; Economics; Permafrost; Population distribution; Population dynamics; Population statistics; Sustainable development; Asian Russia; Climate change scenarios; climate severity; Ecological landscape potential; Economic and social development; General circulation model; Human population; Strategic adaptations; Climate change
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154554
作者单位	Sukachev Institute of Forest, Krasnoyarsk Federal Research Center, SB RAS, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federation; National Institute of Aerospace, NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Parfenova E.,Tchebakova N.,Soja A.. Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and 'attractiveness' across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century[J],2019,14(6).
APA	Parfenova E.,Tchebakova N.,&Soja A..(2019).Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and 'attractiveness' across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century.Environmental Research Letters,14(6).
MLA	Parfenova E.,et al."Assessing landscape potential for human sustainability and 'attractiveness' across Asian Russia in a warmer 21st century".Environmental Research Letters 14.6(2019).