气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risk measures and the distribution of damage curves for 600 European coastal cities

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab185c
	Risk measures and the distribution of damage curves for 600 European coastal cities
	Abadie L.M.; Galarraga I.; Markandya A.; Sainz De Murieta E.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:6
英文摘要	A good understanding of climate change damages is vital to design effective adaptation policies and measures. Using a dataset of probabilistic sea-level rise and other of flood damages and protection cost curves for the 600 largest European coastal cities we generate stochastic damage curves and their distributions with and without adaptation. We apply the Generalized Extreme Value distribution to characterize the distributions and calculate two risk measures: the Value at Risk and the Expected Shortfall, which contribute to understanding the magnitude and probability of high-end sea-level rise represented by the upper tail of the distribution. This allows the costs of sea-level rise to be estimated (that is, in addition to other costs related to coastal extreme events) and supports decision-makers in integrating the high uncertainty related to future projections. This knowledge is necessary for an adequate risk management that does not underestimate risk. Furthermore, it allows city planners to tailor their risk tolerance. A great number of cities in Europe are currently undertaking adaptation plans or have already done so. Making these findings available should therefore be of great priority value to inform these processes. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	adaptation in cities; costs; Europe; risk measures; Sea level rise
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Costs; Decision making; Probability distributions; Risk management; Sea level; Stochastic systems; Uncertainty analysis; Value engineering; adaptation in cities; Adaptation policies; Europe; Expected shortfall; Future projections; Generalized extreme value distribution; Risk measures; Sea level rise; Risk assessment
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154537
作者单位	Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Leioa, Basque Country, 48640, Spain; Grantham Research Institute (LSE), London, WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Abadie L.M.,Galarraga I.,Markandya A.,et al. Risk measures and the distribution of damage curves for 600 European coastal cities[J],2019,14(6).
APA	Abadie L.M.,Galarraga I.,Markandya A.,&Sainz De Murieta E..(2019).Risk measures and the distribution of damage curves for 600 European coastal cities.Environmental Research Letters,14(6).
MLA	Abadie L.M.,et al."Risk measures and the distribution of damage curves for 600 European coastal cities".Environmental Research Letters 14.6(2019).