气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °c, 2.0 °c, 2.5 °c and 3.0 °c

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab17fb
	Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °c, 2.0 °c, 2.5 °c and 3.0 °c
	Qian B.; Zhang X.; Smith W.; Grant B.; Jing Q.; Cannon A.J.; Neilsen D.; McConkey B.; Li G.; Bonsal B.; Wan H.; Xue L.; Zhao J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	Science-based assessments of climate change impacts on cropping systems under different levels of global warming are essential for informing stakeholders which global climate targets and potential adaptation strategies may be effective. A comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts on Canada's crop production under different levels of global warming is currently lacking. The DayCent, DNDC and DSSAT models were employed to estimate changes in crop yield and production for three prominent crops including spring wheat, canola and maize in current agricultural regions of Canada. Four warming scenarios with global mean temperature changes of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 2.5 °C and 3.0 °C above the pre-industrial level were investigated. Climate scenarios from 20 Global Climate Models, included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and downscaled with a multivariate quantile mapping bias correction method, were used to drive the crop simulation models. Simulated yield changes demonstrate a potentially positive impact on spring wheat and canola yields at all four temperature levels, particularly when shifting planting date is considered in the simulations. There was less consensus for the currently utilized short-season maize cultivars, as yields were only projected to increase by DNDC compared to a slight decrease by DayCent and a slight increase up to 2.5 °C followed by a decrease at 3.0 °C by DSSAT. These findings indicate that climate at the global warming levels up to 3.0 °C above the pre-industrial level could be beneficial for crop production of small grains in Canada. However, these benefits declined after warming reached 2.5 °C. © 2018 Canadian Crown.
英文关键词	Agriculture; Canada; climate change; climate targets; crop models; crop yields
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Climate change; Crops; Cultivation; Global warming; Plants (botany); Canada; Climate targets; Comprehensive evaluation; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Crop model; Crop simulation model; Crop yield; Global-mean temperature; Climate models; Brassica napus var. napus; Triticum aestivum; Zea mays
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154528
作者单位	Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Ottawa, Canada; Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Canada; Strategic Policy Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qian B.,Zhang X.,Smith W.,et al. Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °c, 2.0 °c, 2.5 °c and 3.0 °c[J],2019,14(7).
APA	Qian B..,Zhang X..,Smith W..,Grant B..,Jing Q..,...&Zhao J..(2019).Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °c, 2.0 °c, 2.5 °c and 3.0 °c.Environmental Research Letters,14(7).
MLA	Qian B.,et al."Climate change impacts on Canadian yields of spring wheat, canola and maize for global warming levels of 1.5 °c, 2.0 °c, 2.5 °c and 3.0 °c".Environmental Research Letters 14.7(2019).