气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab214a
	Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model
	Lenderink G.; Belušić D.; Fowler H.J.; Kjellström E.; Lind P.; Van Meijgaard E.; Van Ulft B.; De Vries H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	Changes in sub-daily precipitation extremes potentially lead to large impacts of climate change due to their influence on soil erosion, landslides, and flooding. However, these changes are still rather uncertain, with only limited high-resolution results available and a lack of fundamental knowledge on the processes leading to sub-daily extremes. Here, we study the response of hourly extremes in a convection-permitting regional climate model (CPRCM) for an idealized warming experiment - repeating present-day observed weather under warmer and moister conditions. Ten months of simulation covering summer and early autumn for two domains over western Central Europe and western Mediterranean are performed. In general, we obtain higher sensitivities to warming for local-scale extreme precipitation at the original grid-scale of 2.5-3 km than for aggregated analyses at a scale of 12-15 km, representative for currently conventional regional climate models. The grid-scale sensitivity over sea, and in particular over the Mediterranean Sea, approaches 12%-16% increase per degree, close to two times the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. In contrast, over the dry parts of Spain the sensitivity is close to the CC rate of 6%-7% per degree. For other land areas, sensitivities are in between these two values, with a tendency for the cooler and more humid areas to show lower scaling rates for the most intense hourly precipitation, whereas the land area surrounding the Mediterranean Sea shows the opposite behaviour with the largest increases projected for the most extreme hourly precipitation intensities. While our experimental setup only estimates the thermodynamic response of extremes due to moisture increases, and neglects a number of large-scale feedbacks that may temper future increases in precipitation extremes, some of the sensitivities reported here reflect findings from observational trends. Therefore, our results can provide guidance within which to understand recent observed trends and for future climate projections with CPRCMs. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Climate change; convection-permitting regional climate model; convective precipitation; precipitation extremes; sub-daily precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Precipitation (meteorology); Convective precipitation; Daily precipitations; Future climate projections; Precipitation extremes; Precipitation intensity; Regional climate modeling; Regional climate models; Western-central europe; Climate models
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154518
作者单位	Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden; School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lenderink G.,Belušić D.,Fowler H.J.,et al. Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model[J],2019,14(7).
APA	Lenderink G..,Belušić D..,Fowler H.J..,Kjellström E..,Lind P..,...&De Vries H..(2019).Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model.Environmental Research Letters,14(7).
MLA	Lenderink G.,et al."Systematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model".Environmental Research Letters 14.7(2019).