气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An inter-comparison of the social costs of air quality from reduced-complexity models

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab1ab5
	An inter-comparison of the social costs of air quality from reduced-complexity models
	Gilmore E.A.; Heo J.; Muller N.Z.; Tessum C.W.; Hill J.D.; Marshall J.D.; Adams P.J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	Reliable estimates of externality costs - such as the costs arising from premature mortality due to exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) - are critical for policy analysis. To facilitate broader analysis, several datasets of the social costs of air quality have been produced by a set of reduced-complexity models (RCMs). It is much easier to use the tabulated marginal costs derived from RCMs than it is to run 'state-of-the-science' chemical transport models (CTMs). However, the differences between these datasets have not been systematically examined, leaving analysts with no guidance on how and when these differences matter. Here, we compare per-tonne marginal costs from ground level and elevated emission sources for each county in the United States for sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3) and inert primary PM2.5 from three RCMs: Air Pollution Emission Experiments and Policy (AP2), Estimating Air pollution Social Impacts Using Regression (EASIUR) and the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP). National emission-weighted average damages vary among models by approximately 21%, 31%, 28% and 12% for inert primary PM2.5, SO2, NOx and NH3 emissions, respectively, for ground-level sources. For elevated sources, emission-weighted damages vary by approximately 42%, 26%, 42% and 20% for inert primary PM2.5, SO2, NOx and NH3 emissions, respectively. Despite fundamental structural differences, the three models predict marginal costs that are within the same order of magnitude. That different and independent methods have converged on similar results bolsters confidence in the RCMs. Policy analyzes of national-level air quality policies that sum over pollutants and geographical locations are often robust to these differences, although the differences may matter for more source- or location-specific analyzes. Overall, the loss of fidelity caused by using RCMs and their social cost datasets in place of CTMs is modest. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	air quality; externality costs; Model inter-comparison; particulate matter; policy analysis
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Air quality; Ammonia; Chemical analysis; Cost estimating; Cost reduction; Nitrogen oxides; Particles (particulate matter); Quality control; Sulfur dioxide; Chemical transport models; Fine particulate matter (PM2.5); Geographical locations; Model inter comparisons; Particulate Matter; Policy analysis; Pollution emissions; Structural differences; Cost benefit analysis
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154510
作者单位	Department of International Development and Environment, Clark University Community, Worcester, MA, United States; Center for Atmospheric Particle Studies, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States; Tepper School of Business, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Department of Bioproducts and Biosystems Engineering, University of Minnesota, St Paul, MN, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gilmore E.A.,Heo J.,Muller N.Z.,et al. An inter-comparison of the social costs of air quality from reduced-complexity models[J],2019,14(7).
APA	Gilmore E.A..,Heo J..,Muller N.Z..,Tessum C.W..,Hill J.D..,...&Adams P.J..(2019).An inter-comparison of the social costs of air quality from reduced-complexity models.Environmental Research Letters,14(7).
MLA	Gilmore E.A.,et al."An inter-comparison of the social costs of air quality from reduced-complexity models".Environmental Research Letters 14.7(2019).