气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab1cd9
	Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission
	Orru H.; Åström C.; Andersson C.; Tamm T.; Ebi K.L.; Forsberg B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	Climate change is expected to increase to extreme temperatures and lead to more intense formation of near-surface ozone. Higher temperatures can cause heat stress and ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant; both increase cardiorespiratory mortality. Using greenhouse gas and ozone precursor emission scenarios, global and regional climate and chemistry-transport models, epidemiological data, and population projections, we projected ozone- and heat-related health risks under a changing climate. European near-surface temperature was modelled with the regional climate model (RCA4), forced by the greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP4.5 and the global climate model EC-EARTH, and near-surface ozone was modelled with the Multi-scale Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) model. Two periods were compared: recent climate in 1991-2000 and future climate in 2046-2055, projecting around a 2° increase in global temperatures by that time. Projections of premature mortality considered future climate, future population, and future emissions separately and jointly to understand the relative importance of their contributions. Ozone currently causes 55 000 premature deaths annually in Europe due to long-term exposure, including a proportion of the estimated 26 000 deaths per year due to short-term exposures. When only taking into account the impact of a changing climate, up to an 11% increase in ozone-associated mortality is expected in some countries in Central and Southern Europe in 2050. However, projected decreases in ozone precursor emissions are expected to result in a decrease in ozone-related mortality (-30% as EU average). Due to aging and increasingly susceptible populations, the decrease in 2050 would be smaller, up to -24%. During summer months, ozone risks could combine with increasing temperatures, especially during the hottest periods and in densely populated urban areas. While the heat burden is currently of the same order of magnitude as ozone, due to increasing temperatures and decreasing ozone precursor emissions, heat-related mortality could be twice as large as ozone-related mortality in 2050. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	air quality; climate change; health; modelling; temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Air quality; Atmospheric chemistry; Atmospheric movements; Atmospheric temperature; Climate models; Gas emissions; Greenhouse gases; Health; Health risks; Models; Ozone; Population statistics; Risk perception; Temperature; Atmospheric transport; Chemistry transport model; Extreme temperatures; Heat related mortality; Increasing temperatures; Near surface temperature; Regional climate modeling; Susceptible population; Climate change
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154509
作者单位	Institute of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umea University, Umeå, 901 87, Sweden; Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Ravila 19, Tartu, 50409, Estonia; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Folkborgsvägen 17, Norrköping, 60176, Sweden; Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, Vanemuise 46, Tartu, 51003, Estonia; Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98105, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Orru H.,Åström C.,Andersson C.,et al. Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission[J],2019,14(7).
APA	Orru H.,Åström C.,Andersson C.,Tamm T.,Ebi K.L.,&Forsberg B..(2019).Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission.Environmental Research Letters,14(7).
MLA	Orru H.,et al."Ozone and heat-related mortality in Europe in 2050 significantly affected by changes in climate, population and greenhouse gas emission".Environmental Research Letters 14.7(2019).