气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab23c1
	Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise
	Tokarska K.B.; Hegerl G.C.; Schurer A.P.; Ribes A.; Fasullo J.T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	More than 90% of the Earth's energy imbalance is stored by the ocean. While previous studies have shown that changes in the ocean warming are detectable and distinct from internal variability of the climate system, an estimate of separate contributions by natural and individual anthropogenic forcings (such as greenhouse gases and aerosols) remains outstanding. Here we investigate anthropogenic and greenhouse-gas contributions to past ocean warming, and estimate their contributions to future sea level rise by the year 2100. By applying detection and attribution framework (regularized optimal fingerprinting), we show that ocean warming in the historical period is detectable and attributable to contributions from the aggregate anthropogenic forcing as well as greenhouse gas forcing alone. We also discuss the role of natural forcing on the ocean volume-averaged temperature and examine the impact of volcanic activity from the three main volcanoes occurring in the historical period 1955-2012. Our results suggest that estimated anthropogenic and greenhouse-gas contributions to ocean warming are consistent with observations, and observationally-constrained future thermosteric sea level rise projections support the central and lower part of the multi-model mean projection range distribution. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate change; detection and attribution; Earthsystem modelling; Ocean warming; thermosteric sea level
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Greenhouse gases; Volcanoes; Anthropogenic forcing; Detection and attributions; Greenhouse gas contributions; Greenhouse-gas forcing; Internal variability; Ocean warming; Optimal fingerprinting; Thermosteric sea level; Sea level
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154505
作者单位	School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom; CNRM-GAME, Météo France, CNRS, France; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tokarska K.B.,Hegerl G.C.,Schurer A.P.,et al. Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise[J],2019,14(7).
APA	Tokarska K.B.,Hegerl G.C.,Schurer A.P.,Ribes A.,&Fasullo J.T..(2019).Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise.Environmental Research Letters,14(7).
MLA	Tokarska K.B.,et al."Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise".Environmental Research Letters 14.7(2019).