气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Land rents drive oil palm expansion dynamics in Indonesia

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab2bda
	Land rents drive oil palm expansion dynamics in Indonesia
	Lim F.K.S.; Roman Carrasco L.; McHardy J.; Edwards D.P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:7
英文摘要	Increasing global demand for oil palm drives its expansion across the tropics, at the expense of forests and biodiversity. Little is known of the dynamics that shape the spread of oil palm, limiting our potential to predict areas vulnerable to future crop expansion and its resulting biodiversity impacts. Critically, studies have not related oil palm expansion to the role of agricultural rent and profitability in explaining how and where oil palm is expected to expand. Using a novel land rent modelling framework parameterised to oil palm expansion across Indonesia between 2000 and 2015, we identify drivers of crop expansion and evaluate whether Indonesia's Forest Moratorium might reduce the rate of future oil palm expansion. With an overall accuracy of 85.84%, the model shows oil palm expansion is driven by price changes, spatial distribution of production costs, and a spatial contagion effect. Projecting beyond 2015, we show that areas under high risk of oil palm expansion are mostly not protected by the current Forest Moratorium. Our study emphasises the importance of economic forces and infrastructure on oil palm expansion. These results could be used for more effective conservation decisions to manage one of the biggest drivers of tropical biodiversity loss. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Agricultural rent; conservation planning; cropland expansion; deforestation; Elaeis guineensis; Forest Moratorium
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biodiversity; Conservation; Costs; Crops; Deforestation; Expansion; Tropics; Agricultural rent; Biodiversity loss; Conservation planning; Elaeis guineensis; Expansion dynamics; Forest Moratorium; Modelling framework; Overall accuracies; Palm oil; Elaeis; Elaeis guineensis
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154493
作者单位	Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom; Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom; Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lim F.K.S.,Roman Carrasco L.,McHardy J.,et al. Land rents drive oil palm expansion dynamics in Indonesia[J],2019,14(7).
APA	Lim F.K.S.,Roman Carrasco L.,McHardy J.,&Edwards D.P..(2019).Land rents drive oil palm expansion dynamics in Indonesia.Environmental Research Letters,14(7).
MLA	Lim F.K.S.,et al."Land rents drive oil palm expansion dynamics in Indonesia".Environmental Research Letters 14.7(2019).