气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab3086
	The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change
	Terrenoire E.; Hauglustaine D.A.; Gasser T.; Penanhoat O.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:8
英文摘要	The compact Earth system model OSCARv2.2 is used to assess the climate impact of present and future civil aviation carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The impact of aviation CO2 on future climate is quantified over the 1940-2050 period, extending some simulations to 2100 and using different aviation CO2 emission scenarios and two background Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0) for other emission sectors. Several aviation scenarios including weak to strong mitigation options are considered with emissions ranging from 386 MtCO2/year (Factor 2 scenario) to 2338 MtCO2/year (ICAO based scenario) in 2050. As a reference, in 2000, the calculated impact of aviation CO2 emissions is 9.1 2 mK (0.8% of the total anthropogenic warming associated to fossil fuel emissions). In 2050, on a climate trajectory in line with the Paris Agreement limiting the global warming below 2 C (RCP2.6), the impact of the aviation CO2 emissions ranges from 26 2 mK (1.4% of the total anthropogenic warming associated to fossil fuel emissions) for an ambitious mitigation strategy scenario (Factor 2) to 39 4 mK (2.0% of the total anthropogenic warming associated to fossil fuel emissions) for the least ambitious mitigation scenario of the study (ICAO based). On the longer term, if no significant emission mitigation is implemented for the aviation sector, the associated warming could further increase and reach a value of 99.5 mK 20 mK in 2100 (ICAO based), which corresponds to 5.2% of the total anthropogenic warming under RCP2.6. The contribution of CO2 is estimated to represent 36%-51% of the total aviation radiative forcing of climate including short-term climate forcers. However, due to its long residence time in the atmosphere, aviation CO2 will have a major contribution on decadal time scales. These additional short-terms forcers are subject to large uncertainties and will be analysed in forthcoming studies. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	aviation; carbon dioxide; climate change; compact Earth system model (CESM); OSCARv2.2
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Air navigation; Atmospheric radiation; Aviation; Carbon dioxide; Civil aviation; Climate change; Fossil fuels; Global warming; Uncertainty analysis; Anthropogenic warming; Carbon dioxide emissions; Earth system model; Emission mitigation; Fossil fuel emissions; Mitigation options; Mitigation strategy; OSCARv2.2; Climate models; aircraft emission; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; climate change; emission control; environmental modeling; fossil fuel; global perspective; global warming; international agreement; radiative forcing
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154454
作者单位	Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Université Paris Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Laboratoire Image Ville Environnement, Strasbourg, France; DMPE, ONERA, Université Paris Saclay, Palaiseau, France; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; SAFRAN Aircraft Engines, Villaroche Center, Moissy Cramayel, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Terrenoire E.,Hauglustaine D.A.,Gasser T.,et al. The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change[J],2019,14(8).
APA	Terrenoire E.,Hauglustaine D.A.,Gasser T.,&Penanhoat O..(2019).The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change.Environmental Research Letters,14(8).
MLA	Terrenoire E.,et al."The contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from the aviation sector to future climate change".Environmental Research Letters 14.8(2019).