气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Significant feedbacks of wetland methane release on climate change and the causes of their uncertainty

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab2726
	Significant feedbacks of wetland methane release on climate change and the causes of their uncertainty
	Gedney N.; Huntingford C.; Comyn-Platt E.; Wiltshire A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:8
英文摘要	Emissions from wetlands are the single largest source of the atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) methane (CH4). This may increase in a warming climate, leading to a positive feedback on climate change. For the first time, we extend interactive wetland CH4 emissions schemes to include the recently quantified, significant process of CH4 transfer through tropical trees. We constrain the parameterisations using a multi-site flux study, and biogeochemical and inversion models. This provides an estimate and uncertainty range in contemporary, large-scale wetland emissions and their response to temperature. To assess the potential for future wetland CH4 emissions to feedback on climate, the schemes are forced with simulated climate change using a 'pattern-scaling' system, which links altered atmospheric radiative forcing to meteorology changes. We perform multiple simulations emulating 34 Earth System Models over different anthropogenic GHG emissions scenarios (RCPs). We provide a detailed assessment of the causes of uncertainty in predicting wetland CH4-climate feedback. Despite the constraints applied, uncertainty from wetland CH4 emission modelling is greater that from projected climate spread (under a given RCP). Limited knowledge of contemporary global wetland emissions restricts model calibration, producing the largest individual cause of wetland parameterisation uncertainty. Wetland feedback causes an additional temperature increase between 0.6% and 5.5% over the 21st century, with a feedback on climate ranging from 0.01 to 0.11 Wm-2 K-1. Wetland CH4 emissions amplify atmospheric CH4 increases by up to a further possible 25.4% in one simulation, and reduce remaining allowed anthropogenic emissions to maintain the RCP2.6 temperature threshold by 8.0% on average. © 2019 Crown copyright. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office.
英文关键词	climate; feedback; methane; wetlands
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric radiation; Atmospheric temperature; Feedback; Gas emissions; Greenhouse gases; Methane; Uncertainty analysis; Wetlands; Anthropogenic emissions; Atmospheric greenhouse; climate; Earth system model; Emission modelling; Radiative forcings; Temperature increase; Temperature thresholds; Climate change; anthropogenic source; climate change; greenhouse gas; methane; radiative forcing; uncertainty analysis; wetland
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154444
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, Joint Centre for Hydrometeorological Research, Maclean Building, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gedney N.,Huntingford C.,Comyn-Platt E.,et al. Significant feedbacks of wetland methane release on climate change and the causes of their uncertainty[J],2019,14(8).
APA	Gedney N.,Huntingford C.,Comyn-Platt E.,&Wiltshire A..(2019).Significant feedbacks of wetland methane release on climate change and the causes of their uncertainty.Environmental Research Letters,14(8).
MLA	Gedney N.,et al."Significant feedbacks of wetland methane release on climate change and the causes of their uncertainty".Environmental Research Letters 14.8(2019).