气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °c and 2 °c in drying climates: A case study for Melbourne, Australia

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab26ef
	Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °c and 2 °c in drying climates: A case study for Melbourne, Australia
	Henley B.J.; Peel M.C.; Nathan R.; King A.D.; Ukkola A.M.; Karoly D.J.; Tan K.S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:8
英文摘要	Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine hydrological and climate model simulations to evaluate risks to the water supply under projected shifts in the climate at the Paris Agreement warming levels. Modelling the primary surface water sources for Melbourne, Australia, we project that the risk of severe water supply shortage to the climate-dependent portion of the system increases substantially as global warming increases from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Risks are further exacerbated by increases in water demand but substantially ameliorated by supply augmentation from desalination. We demonstrate that reductions in precipitation, rising temperature and growth in water demand combine to substantially amplify the risk of severe water supply shortage under near-term global warming in the absence of a climate-independent supply. This risk amplification is not as apparent in assessments based on meteorological drought alone. With the diminishing opportunity of meeting the 1.5 °C Paris target, our study highlights the need to accelerate greenhouse gas mitigation efforts to reduce risks to climate dependent water supply systems. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	1.5 °C, 2.0 °C; desalination; drought; drought risk; Paris Agreement; water supply
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Desalination; Drought; Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Risk assessment; Surface waters; Water supply systems; Climate model simulations; Drought risks; Greenhouse gas mitigation; Melbourne , Australia; Meteorological drought; Primary surface; Rising temperatures; Water supply shortages; Water supply; climate change; climate modeling; desalination; drought; environmental risk; global warming; greenhouse gas; surface water; temperature effect; water demand; water supply; Australia; Melbourne; Victoria [Australia]
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154443
作者单位	School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Australia; School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Australia; Infrastructure Engineering, University of Melbourne, Australia; Research School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Australia; CSIRO, Australia; Melbourne Water, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Henley B.J.,Peel M.C.,Nathan R.,et al. Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °c and 2 °c in drying climates: A case study for Melbourne, Australia[J],2019,14(8).
APA	Henley B.J..,Peel M.C..,Nathan R..,King A.D..,Ukkola A.M..,...&Tan K.S..(2019).Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °c and 2 °c in drying climates: A case study for Melbourne, Australia.Environmental Research Letters,14(8).
MLA	Henley B.J.,et al."Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5 °c and 2 °c in drying climates: A case study for Melbourne, Australia".Environmental Research Letters 14.8(2019).