气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projections of declining fluvial sediment delivery to major deltas worldwide in response to climate change and anthropogenic stress

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab304e
	Projections of declining fluvial sediment delivery to major deltas worldwide in response to climate change and anthropogenic stress
	Dunn F.E.; Darby S.E.; Nicholls R.J.; Cohen S.; Zarfl C.; Fekete B.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:8
英文摘要	Deltas are resource rich, low-lying areas where vulnerability to flooding is exacerbated by natural and anthropogenically induced subsidence and geocentric sea-level rise, threatening the large populations often found in these settings. Delta 'drowning' is potentially offset by deposition of sediment on the delta surface, making the delivery of fluvial sediment to the delta a key balancing control in offsetting relative sea-level rise, provided that sediment can be dispersed across the subaerial delta. Here we analyse projected changes in fluvial sediment flux over the 21st century to 47 of the world's major deltas under 12 environmental change scenarios. The 12 scenarios were constructed using four climate pathways (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5), three socioeconomic pathways (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1, 2 and 3), and one reservoir construction timeline. A majority (33/47) of the investigated deltas are projected to experience reductions in sediment flux by the end of the century, when considering the average of the scenarios, with mean and maximum declines of 38% and 83%, respectively, between 1990-2019 and 2070-2099. These declines are driven by the effects of anthropogenic activities (changing land management practices and dam construction) overwhelming the effects of future climate change. The results frame the extent and magnitude of future sustainability of major global deltas. They highlight the consequences of direct (e.g. damming) and indirect (e.g. climate change) alteration of fluvial sediment flux dynamics and stress the need for further in-depth analysis for individual deltas to aid in developing appropriate management measures. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	deltas; fluvial sediment; hydrogeomorphic modelling
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Sea level; Sediments; Sustainable development; Anthropogenic activity; deltas; Environmental change; Fluvial sediment; Hydrogeomorphic; Land management practices; Relative sea level rise; Reservoir constructions; Climate change; climate change; delta; environmental change; human activity; hydrogeology; land management; land use change; scenario analysis; sediment transport; subsidence; vulnerability
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154438
作者单位	Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, 3584 CB, Netherlands; School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom; School of Engineering, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, United States; Center for Applied Geosciences, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Tübingen, D-72074, Germany; Department of Civil Engineering, City College of New York, City University of New York, New York, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dunn F.E.,Darby S.E.,Nicholls R.J.,et al. Projections of declining fluvial sediment delivery to major deltas worldwide in response to climate change and anthropogenic stress[J],2019,14(8).
APA	Dunn F.E.,Darby S.E.,Nicholls R.J.,Cohen S.,Zarfl C.,&Fekete B.M..(2019).Projections of declining fluvial sediment delivery to major deltas worldwide in response to climate change and anthropogenic stress.Environmental Research Letters,14(8).
MLA	Dunn F.E.,et al."Projections of declining fluvial sediment delivery to major deltas worldwide in response to climate change and anthropogenic stress".Environmental Research Letters 14.8(2019).