气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab3306
	The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe
	Koks E.E.; Thissen M.; Alfieri L.; De Moel H.; Feyen L.; Jongman B.; Aerts J.C.J.H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:8
英文摘要	The economic impacts of disasters can reach far beyond the affected regions through interconnected transboundary trade flows. As quantification of these indirect impacts is complex, most disaster risk models focus on the direct impacts on assets and people in the impacted region. This study explicitly includes the indirect effects via regional economic interdependencies to model economic disaster losses on a continental scale, exemplified by river flooding in Europe. The results demonstrate that economic implications go beyond the direct damages typically considered. Moreover, we find that indirect losses can be offset by up to 60% by economic actors through finding alternative suppliers and markets within their existing trade relations. Towards the future, increases in economic flood losses (up to 350%) can be expected for all global warming scenarios. Indirect losses rise by 65% more compared to direct asset damages due to the increasing size of future flood events, making it more difficult to offset losses through alternative suppliers and markets. On a sectoral level, future increases in losses are highest for commercial services (∼980%) and public utilities (∼580%). As the latter are predominately affected through cascading effects, this highlights how interdependencies between economic actors could amplify future disaster losses. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	climate change; disaster risk; economic impacts; river flooding
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Commerce; Disasters; Flood damage; Global warming; Public utilities; Regional planning; Risk assessment; Rivers; Cascading effects; Commercial services; Continental scale; Economic impacts; Economic implications; Macroeconomic impact; Regional economic; River flooding; Economic and social effects; climate change; damage mechanics; disaster management; economic impact; flooding; future prospect; global warming; quantitative analysis; regional economy; risk factor; trade flow
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154429
作者单位	Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands; European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy; World Bank Group, Washington, DC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Koks E.E.,Thissen M.,Alfieri L.,et al. The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe[J],2019,14(8).
APA	Koks E.E..,Thissen M..,Alfieri L..,De Moel H..,Feyen L..,...&Aerts J.C.J.H..(2019).The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe.Environmental Research Letters,14(8).
MLA	Koks E.E.,et al."The macroeconomic impacts of future river flooding in Europe".Environmental Research Letters 14.8(2019).