气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab35a6
	The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios
	Arnell N.W.; Lowe J.A.; Bernie D.; Nicholls R.J.; Brown S.; Challinor A.J.; Osborn T.J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:8
英文摘要	This paper presents an evaluation of the global and regional consequences of climate change for heat extremes, water resources, river and coastal flooding, droughts, agriculture and energy use. It presents change in hazard and resource base under different rates of climate change (representative concentration pathways (RCP)), and socio-economic impacts are estimated for each combination of RCP and shared socioeconomic pathway. Uncertainty in the regional pattern of climate change is characterised by CMIP5 climate model projections. The analysis adopts a novel approach using relationships between level of warming and impact to rapidly estimate impacts under any climate forcing. The projections provided here can be used to inform assessments of the implications of climate change. At the global scale all the consequences of climate change considered here are adverse, with large increases under the highest rates of warming. Under the highest forcing the global average annual chance of a major heatwave increases from 5% now to 97% in 2100, the average proportion of time in drought increases from 7% to 27%, and the average chance of the current 50 year flood increases from 2% to 7%. The socio-economic impacts of these climate changes are determined by socio-economic scenario. There is variability in impact across regions, reflecting variability in projected changes in precipitation and temperature. The range in the estimated impacts can be large, due to uncertainty in future emissions and future socio-economic conditions and scientific uncertainty in how climate changes in response to future emissions. For the temperature-based indicators, the largest source of scientific uncertainty is in the estimated magnitude of equilibrium climate sensitivity, but for the indicators determined by precipitation the largest source is in the estimated spatial and seasonal pattern of changes in precipitation. By 2100, the range across socio-economic scenario is often greater than the range across the forcing levels. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	agricultural impacts; climate change; drought; flood; hazard; heatwave; ScenarioMIP
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Climate models; Drought; Economic and social effects; Floods; Hazards; Uncertainty analysis; Water resources; Agricultural impacts; Climate sensitivity; heatwave; ScenarioMIP; Scientific uncertainty; Seasonal patterns; Socio-economic conditions; Socio-economic impacts; Climate change; climate change; climate forcing; CMIP; drought; flood; global climate; heat wave; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; regional pattern; scenario analysis; socioeconomic conditions
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154419
作者单位	Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Priestley Centre, University of Leeds, United Kingdom; Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, United Kingdom; Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Bournemouth University, United Kingdom; Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Science, University of East Anglia, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Arnell N.W.,Lowe J.A.,Bernie D.,et al. The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios[J],2019,14(8).
APA	Arnell N.W..,Lowe J.A..,Bernie D..,Nicholls R.J..,Brown S..,...&Osborn T.J..(2019).The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios.Environmental Research Letters,14(8).
MLA	Arnell N.W.,et al."The global and regional impacts of climate change under representative concentration pathway forcings and shared socioeconomic pathway socioeconomic scenarios".Environmental Research Letters 14.8(2019).