气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Towards quantifying uncertainty in ocean heat content changes using synthetic profiles

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab2b0b
	Towards quantifying uncertainty in ocean heat content changes using synthetic profiles
	Allison L.C.; Roberts C.D.; Palmer M.D.; Hermanson L.; Killick R.E.; Rayner N.A.; Smith D.M.; Andrews M.B.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:8
英文摘要	Observational estimates of global ocean heat content (OHC) change are used to assess Earth's energy imbalance over the 20th Century. However, intercomparison studies show that the mapping methods used to interpolate sparse ocean temperature profile data are a key source of uncertainty. We present a new approach to assessing OHC mapping methods using 'synthetic profiles' generated from a state-of-the-art global climate model simulation. Synthetic profiles have the same sampling characteristics as the historical ocean temperature profile data but are based on model simulation data. Mapping methods ingest these data in the same way as they would real observations, but the resultant mapped fields can be compared to a model simulation 'truth'. We use this approach to assess two mapping methods that are used routinely for climate monitoring and initialisation of decadal forecasts. The introduction of the Argo network of autonomous profiling floats during the 2000s drives clear improvements in the ability of these methods to reconstruct the variability and spatial structure of OHC changes. At depths below 2000 m, both methods underestimate the magnitude of the simulated ocean warming signal. Temporal variability and trends in OHC are better captured in the better-observed northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. At all depths, the sampling characteristics of the historical data introduces some spurious variability in the estimates of global OHC on sub-annual to multi-annual timescales. However, many of the large scale spatial anomalies, especially in the upper ocean, are successfully reconstructed even with sparse observations from the 1960s, demonstrating the potential to construct historical ocean analyses for assessing decadal predictions. The value of using accurate global covariances for data-poor periods is clearly seen. The results of this 'proof-of-concept' study are encouraging for gaining further insights into the capabilities and limitations of different mapping methods and for quantifying uncertainty in global OHC estimates. © 2019 Crown copyright. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office.
英文关键词	observations; ocean heat content; synthetic profiles; uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Digital storage; Enthalpy; Hydrographic surveys; Mapping; Oceanography; Temperature control; Global climate model simulations; Multi-annual timescales; Northern Hemispheres; observations; Ocean heat content; synthetic profiles; Temporal variability; uncertainty; Uncertainty analysis; annual variation; Argo; climate modeling; global climate; global ocean; heat budget; Northern Hemisphere; observational method; simulation; temperature profile; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154414
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Allison L.C.,Roberts C.D.,Palmer M.D.,et al. Towards quantifying uncertainty in ocean heat content changes using synthetic profiles[J],2019,14(8).
APA	Allison L.C..,Roberts C.D..,Palmer M.D..,Hermanson L..,Killick R.E..,...&Andrews M.B..(2019).Towards quantifying uncertainty in ocean heat content changes using synthetic profiles.Environmental Research Letters,14(8).
MLA	Allison L.C.,et al."Towards quantifying uncertainty in ocean heat content changes using synthetic profiles".Environmental Research Letters 14.8(2019).