气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3
	The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand
	Van Der Wiel K.; Bloomfield H.C.; Lee R.W.; Stoop L.P.; Blackport R.; Screen J.A.; Selten F.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:9
英文摘要	The growing share of variable renewable energy increases the meteorological sensitivity of power systems. This study investigates if large-scale weather regimes capture the influence of meteorological variability on the European energy sector. For each weather regime, the associated changes to wintertime - mean and extreme - wind and solar power production, temperature-driven energy demand and energy shortfall (residual load) are explored. Days with a blocked circulation pattern, i.e. the 'Scandinavian Blocking' and 'North Atlantic Oscillation negative' regimes, on average have lower than normal renewable power production, higher than normal energy demand and therefore, higher than normal energy shortfall. These average effects hide large variability of energy parameters within each weather regime. Though the risk of extreme high energy shortfall events increases in the two blocked regimes (by a factor of 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), it is shown that such events occur in all regimes. Extreme high energy shortfall events are the result of rare circulation types and smaller-scale features, rather than extreme magnitudes of common large-scale circulation types. In fact, these events resemble each other more strongly than their respective weather regime mean pattern. For (sub-)seasonal forecasting applications weather regimes may be of use for the energy sector. At shorter lead times or for more detailed system analyses, their ineffectiveness at characterising extreme events limits their potential. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Energy management; Energy policy; Extreme weather; Solar energy; Systems analysis; Circulation patterns; Large-scale circulation; Meteorological variability; North Atlantic oscillations; Renewable energies; Renewable power production; Seasonal forecasting; Variable renewable energies; Weather forecasting; alternative energy; demand analysis; energy market; energy planning; European Union; extreme event; forecasting method; solar power; weather; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154397
作者单位	Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom; Research Institute of Informatics and Computer Science, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Van Der Wiel K.,Bloomfield H.C.,Lee R.W.,et al. The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand[J],2019,14(9).
APA	Van Der Wiel K..,Bloomfield H.C..,Lee R.W..,Stoop L.P..,Blackport R..,...&Selten F.M..(2019).The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand.Environmental Research Letters,14(9).
MLA	Van Der Wiel K.,et al."The influence of weather regimes on European renewable energy production and demand".Environmental Research Letters 14.9(2019).