气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10
	Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer
	Schurer A.P.; Hegerl G.C.; Luterbacher J.; Brönnimann S.; Cowan T.; Tett S.F.B.; Zanchettin D.; Timmreck C.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:9
英文摘要	The European summer of 1816 has often been referred to as a 'year without a summer' due to anomalously cold conditions and unusual wetness, which led to widespread famines and agricultural failures. The cause has often been assumed to be the eruption of Mount Tambora in April 1815, however this link has not, until now, been proven. Here we apply state-of-the-art event attribution methods to quantify the contribution by the eruption and random weather variability to this extreme European summer climate anomaly. By selecting analogue summers that have similar sea-level-pressure patterns to that observed in 1816 from both observations and unperturbed climate model simulations, we show that the circulation state can reproduce the precipitation anomaly without external forcing, but can explain only about a quarter of the anomalously cold conditions. We find that in climate models, including the forcing by the Tambora eruption makes the European cold anomaly up to 100 times more likely, while the precipitation anomaly became 1.5-3 times as likely, attributing a large fraction of the observed anomalies to the volcanic forcing. Our study thus demonstrates how linking regional climate anomalies to large-scale circulation is necessary to quantitatively interpret and attribute post-eruption variability. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd
英文关键词	Climate event attribution; Climate response to volcanic eruptions; European summer climate; The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Food supply; Sea level; Volcanoes; Climate event; Large-scale circulation; Precipitation anomalies; Summer climate; The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora; Unperturbed climate; Volcanic eruptions; Weather variability; Climate models; climate forcing; climate modeling; precipitation (climatology); seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; volcanic eruption; Europe; Indonesia; Lesser Sunda Islands; Sumbawa; Tambora; West Nusa Tenggara
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154380
作者单位	School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Centre of International Development and Environmental Research, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Giessen, Germany; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia; University Ca' Foscari of Venice, Mestre, Italy; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Schurer A.P.,Hegerl G.C.,Luterbacher J.,et al. Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer[J],2019,14(9).
APA	Schurer A.P..,Hegerl G.C..,Luterbacher J..,Brönnimann S..,Cowan T..,...&Timmreck C..(2019).Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer.Environmental Research Letters,14(9).
MLA	Schurer A.P.,et al."Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer".Environmental Research Letters 14.9(2019).