气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab3744
	Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation
	Lee H.; Brown C.; Seo B.; Holman I.; Audsley E.; Cojocaru G.; Rounsevell M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:10
英文摘要	Land-based mitigation, particularly through afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation, is an important component of the Paris Agreement to limit average global temperature increases to between 1.5 °C and 2 °C. However, the specific actions that would ensure sufficient carbon sequestration in forests remain unclear, as do their trade-offs against other land-based objectives. We use a regional integrated assessment model to identify the conditions under which European forests reach the extent required by mitigation targets. We compare stylised scenarios of changes in meat demand, bioenergy crop production, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. Only 42 out of 972 model simulations achieved minimum levels of food provision and forest extent without the need to change dietary preferences, but relied on crop yield improvements within Europe of at least 30%. Maintaining food imports at today's levels to avoid the potential displacement of food production and deforestation required at least a 15% yield improvement, or a drastic reduction in meat consumption (avg. 57%). The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	15°CParis target; afforestation; dietary change; food consumption; negative emissions technologies; reforestation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biofuels; Climate change; Cultivation; Deforestation; Economic and social effects; Irrigation; Reforestation; Carbon sequestration; European forests; Global temperatures; Integrated assessment models; Irrigation efficiency; Large-scale afforestation; Meat consumption; Yield Improvement; Crops; bioenergy; carbon sequestration; crop yield; food; food production; global climate; implementation process; international agreement; mitigation; trade-off; Europe
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154363
作者单位	Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, D-82467, Germany; School of Water, Energy and Environment, Cranfield University, Vincent Building, Bedford, MK43 0AL, United Kingdom; Tiamasg Foundation, Sfintii Voievozi 6, Bucharest, 010963, Romania; School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lee H.,Brown C.,Seo B.,et al. Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation[J],2019,14(10).
APA	Lee H..,Brown C..,Seo B..,Holman I..,Audsley E..,...&Rounsevell M..(2019).Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation.Environmental Research Letters,14(10).
MLA	Lee H.,et al."Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation".Environmental Research Letters 14.10(2019).