气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Economic drivers of wind and solar penetration in the US

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab4e2d
	Economic drivers of wind and solar penetration in the US
	Bistline J.E.T.; Young D.T.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Much has been made of the potential for wind and solar generation to supply cheap, low-emissions electricity, but considerable disagreement exists as to which combinations of many potential drivers will enable deep penetration of these technologies. Most existing analyses consider limited factors in isolation, such as investment costs or energy storage, and do not provide rigorous support for understanding which combinations of factors could underpin a leading role for wind and solar. This study addresses this gap by undertaking a systematic sensitivity analysis using a state-of-the-art energy-economic model to comprehensively evaluate the relative magnitudes of five key drivers that may influence future wind and solar deployment in the United States. We find future wind and solar capital costs and carbon policy are the dominant factors, causing the average wind and solar share to vary by 38 and 31 percentage points, respectively. Transmission and storage availability have much smaller effects, causing the average share to vary by no more than 15 and 5 percentage points, respectively. No single factor unilaterally determines wind and solar deployment. The variable renewable share of electricity generation never reaches 100% nationally in any scenario even with low-cost storage, as decreasing marginal returns at higher deployments eventually outpace cost reductions. Average wind and solar shares and ranges of possible outcomes are higher in this study relative to recent multi-model comparison studies due to lower renewable costs and the potential for more stringent policies. Understanding drivers and barriers to renewable deployment has important ramifications for technology developers, infrastructure, market design, and policymakers, and this research provides insights as to which combinations of drivers lead to the greatest share of economic wind and solar deployment and why. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	energy and environmental policy; energy systems modeling; power sector economics; renewable energy; renewable integration
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Cost reduction; Economics; Electric energy storage; Environmental protection; Investments; Renewable energy resources; Sensitivity analysis; Solar power generation; Energy systems modeling; Environmental policy; Power sector; Renewable energies; Renewable integration; Cost benefit analysis; alternative energy; capital; economic analysis; electricity generation; energy market; energy policy; energy storage; environmental policy; investment; power generation; solar power; wind power; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154336
作者单位	Electric Power Research Institute, 3420 Hillview Avenue, Palo Alto, CA 94304, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bistline J.E.T.,Young D.T.. Economic drivers of wind and solar penetration in the US[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Bistline J.E.T.,&Young D.T..(2019).Economic drivers of wind and solar penetration in the US.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Bistline J.E.T.,et al."Economic drivers of wind and solar penetration in the US".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).