气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multiscale trends and precipitation extremes in the Central American Midsummer Drought

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab5023
	Multiscale trends and precipitation extremes in the Central American Midsummer Drought
	Anderson T.G.; Anchukaitis K.J.; Pons D.; Taylor M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Anecdotal evidence suggests that the timing and intensity of the Central American Midsummer Drought (MSD) may be changing, while observations from limited meteorological station data and paleoclimate reconstructions show neither significant nor consistent trends in seasonal rainfall. Climate model simulations project robust future drying across the region, but internal variability is expected to dominate until the end of the century. Here we use a high-resolution gridded precipitation dataset to investigate these apparent discrepancies and to quantify the spatiotemporal complexities of the MSD. We detect spatially variable trends in MSD timing, the amount of rainy season precipitation, the number of consecutive and total dry days, and extreme wet events at the local scale. At the regional scale, we find a positive trend in the duration, but not the magnitude of the MSD, which is dominated by spatially heterogeneous trends and interannual variability linked to large-scale modes of ocean-atmosphere circulation. Although the current climate still reflects predominantly internal variability, some Central American communities are already experiencing significant changes in local characteristics of the MSD. A detailed spatiotemporal understanding of MSD trends and variability can contribute to evidence-based adaptation planning and help reduce the vulnerability of Central American communities to both natural rainfall variability and anthropogenic change. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	agriculture; Caribbean Low Level Jet; Central America; Midsummer Drought; North Atlantic Subtropical High; trends
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Drought; Rain; Central America; Climate model simulations; Interannual variability; Low level jet; North Atlantic; Paleoclimate reconstruction; Spatio-temporal complexity; trends; Climate models; drought; paleoclimate; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; summer; vulnerability; Central America
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154313
作者单位	School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Denver, Denver, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Anderson T.G.,Anchukaitis K.J.,Pons D.,et al. Multiscale trends and precipitation extremes in the Central American Midsummer Drought[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Anderson T.G.,Anchukaitis K.J.,Pons D.,&Taylor M..(2019).Multiscale trends and precipitation extremes in the Central American Midsummer Drought.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Anderson T.G.,et al."Multiscale trends and precipitation extremes in the Central American Midsummer Drought".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).