气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Persistent fossil fuel growth threatens the Paris Agreement and planetary health

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab57b3
	Persistent fossil fuel growth threatens the Paris Agreement and planetary health
	Jackson R.B.; Friedlingstein P.; Andrew R.M.; Canadell J.G.; Le Quéré C.; Peters G.P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Amidst declarations of planetary emergency and reports that the window for limiting climate change to 1.5 °C is rapidly closing, global average temperatures and fossil fuel emissions continue to rise. Global fossil CO2 emissions have grown three years consecutively: +1.5% in 2017, +2.1% in 2018, and our slower central projection of +0.6% in 2019 (range of -0.32% to 1.5%) to 37 ± 2 Gt CO2 (Friedlingstein et al 2019 Earth Syst. Sci. Data accepted), after a temporary growth hiatus from 2014 to 2016. Economic indicators and trends in global natural gas and oil use suggest a further rise in emissions in 2020 is likely. CO2 emissions are decreasing slowly in many industrialized regions, including the European Union (preliminary estimate of -1.7% [-3.4% to +0.1%] for 2019, -0.8%/yr for 2003-2018) and United States (-1.7% [-3.7% to +0.3%] in 2019, -0.8%/yr for 2003-2018), while emissions continue growing in India (+1.8% [+0.7% to 3.7%] in 2019, +5.1%/yr for 2003-2018), China (+2.6% [+0.7% to 4.4%] in 2019, +0.4%/yr for 2003-2018), and rest of the world ((+0.5% [-0.8% to 1.8%] in 2019, +1.4%/yr for 2003-2018). Two under-appreciated trends suggest continued long-term growth in both oil and natural gas use is likely. Because per capita oil consumption in the US and Europe remains 5- to 20-fold higher than in China and India, increasing vehicle ownership and air travel in Asia are poised to increase global CO2 emissions from oil over the next decade or more. Liquified natural gas exports from Australia and the United States are surging, lowering natural gas prices in Asia and increasing global access to this fossil resource. To counterbalance increasing emissions, we need accelerated energy efficiency improvements and reduced consumption, rapid deployment of electric vehicles, carbon capture and storage technologies, and a decarbonized electricity grid, with new renewable capacities replacing fossil fuels, not supplementing them. Stronger global commitments and carbon pricing would help implement such policies at scale and in time. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon capture; Carbon dioxide; Climate change; Costs; Digital storage; Economics; Emission control; Energy efficiency; Fuel storage; Gas emissions; Liquefied natural gas; Natural gas deposits; Vehicle-to-grid; Capture and storage technologies; Economic indicators; Energy efficiency improvements; Fossil fuel emissions; Liquified natural gas; Natural gas price; Oil and natural gas; Renewable capacity; Fossil fuels; carbon emission; carbon sequestration; climate change; emission control; energy efficiency; environmental economics; environmental indicator; European Union; fossil fuel; international agreement; liquefied natural gas; persistence; pricing policy; trend analysis; Asia; Australia; China; Europe; India; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154301
作者单位	Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-2210, United States; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, United Kingdom; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, Département de Géosciences, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 24 rue Lhomond, Paris, F-75005, France; CICERO Center for International Climate Research, PO Box 1129 Blindern, Oslo, NO-0318, Norway; Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jackson R.B.,Friedlingstein P.,Andrew R.M.,et al. Persistent fossil fuel growth threatens the Paris Agreement and planetary health[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Jackson R.B.,Friedlingstein P.,Andrew R.M.,Canadell J.G.,Le Quéré C.,&Peters G.P..(2019).Persistent fossil fuel growth threatens the Paris Agreement and planetary health.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Jackson R.B.,et al."Persistent fossil fuel growth threatens the Paris Agreement and planetary health".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).