气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab55fd
	Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation
	Tabari H.; Hosseinzadehtalaei P.; Aghakouchak A.; Willems P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Projected precipitation from climate models is used in a wide range of fields for climate change impact assessment. However, the spatial pattern of uncertainty across latitudes and the global uncertainty hotspots are not well understood despite their importance for regional adaptation planning. In this study, we describe uncertainties in projected extreme precipitation changes per K global warming across latitudes, and decompose the overall uncertainty into climate model and internal variability uncertainties. We then identify global uncertainty hotspots and discuss the broader implications. Our results show that both uncertainty sources are highly heterogeneous across latitudes, while climate model uncertainty exceeds internal variability uncertainty for all seasons and precipitation intensities. The largest difference between model and internal variability uncertainties is found in tropical regions where model uncertainty is thrice as large as internal variability uncertainty in June-July-August season and twice as large as that in the other seasons. Tropical and subtropical regions are identified as the global uncertainty hotspots, with the Sahara desert and the southern part of the Middle East being the local hotspots. The large uncertainty in the tropics and subtropics is primarily due to the convective nature of rainstorms which cannot be adequately represented by coarse-scale climate models, and also to sparse observation networks based on which climate models can be tuned and improved. The results highlight areas where future model development and improvement efforts should focus to reduce the overall uncertainties in projected precipitation extremes. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Climate change; Extreme precipitation; Global warming; Latitudinal pattern; Uncertainty hotspots
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Global warming; Precipitation (meteorology); Storms; Tropics; Uncertainty analysis; Climate change impact assessments; Extreme precipitation; Hotspots; Internal variability; Latitudinal pattern; Observation networks; Precipitation extremes; Precipitation intensity; Climate models; adaptive management; climate change; climate modeling; global warming; heterogeneity; latitudinal gradient; precipitation (climatology); uncertainty analysis; Middle East; Sahara
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154296
作者单位	Ku Leuven, Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Section, Belgium; University of California, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irvine, United States; University of California, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, United States; Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tabari H.,Hosseinzadehtalaei P.,Aghakouchak A.,et al. Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Tabari H.,Hosseinzadehtalaei P.,Aghakouchak A.,&Willems P..(2019).Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Tabari H.,et al."Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).