气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Regionalization of anthropogenically forced changes in 3 hourly extreme precipitation over Europe

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab5638
	Regionalization of anthropogenically forced changes in 3 hourly extreme precipitation over Europe
	Hosseinzadehtalaei P.; Tabari H.; Willems P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Future extreme precipitation events are expected to be influenced by climate change; however, the robustness of this anthropogenically forced response in respect to projection uncertainty especially for sub-daily extremes is not fully understood. We analyze the impact of anthropogenic climate change on 3 hourly extreme precipitation with return periods ranging between 5 and 50 years over Europe using the RCA4 model ensemble simulations at 0.11° resolution. The robustness of the signals is examined based on a regionalized signal-to-noise (S2N) technique by taking the spatial pooling into account and the efficacy of the regionalization is tested by a sensitivity analysis. The results show an increasing signal in 3 hourly extreme precipitation over Europe for all seasons except summer for which a bipolar pattern (increase in the north and decrease in the south) is discerned. For the business-as-usual scenario RCP8.5, the regionalized winter 3 hourly extreme precipitation signals over 9 × 9 model grid cells are statistically significant in roughly 72%, 65%, 59% and 48% of the European area for 5, 15, 25 and 50 year return periods respectively, while 16%-21% of the area will experience significant changes in summer. The S2N values for 3 hourly extreme precipitation changes rise after the spatial pooling by about a factor of 1.4-1.7 for all seasons except summer when they decline by about a factor of 0.78. The results of sensitivity analysis reveal that the regionalization influence is sensitive-in order of decreasing importance-to season, precipitation time scale, precipitation intensity, emission scenario and model spatial resolution. The precipitation time scale is particularly important seasonally in summer and regionally in south Europe when/where short-duration convective precipitation is dominant. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Climate change; Euro-cordex; Internal variability; Signal robustness; Spatial pooling; Sub-daily precipitation extremes
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Precipitation (meteorology); Sensitivity analysis; Signal to noise ratio; Anthropogenic climate changes; Convective precipitation; Daily precipitations; Euro-cordex; Extreme precipitation events; Internal variability; Precipitation intensity; Spatial pooling; Climate change; anthropogenic effect; climate change; precipitation (climatology); regionalization; sensitivity analysis; spatial resolution; summer; Europe
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154293
作者单位	Ku Leuven, Department of Civil Engineering, Hydraulics Division, Belgium; Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hosseinzadehtalaei P.,Tabari H.,Willems P.. Regionalization of anthropogenically forced changes in 3 hourly extreme precipitation over Europe[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Hosseinzadehtalaei P.,Tabari H.,&Willems P..(2019).Regionalization of anthropogenically forced changes in 3 hourly extreme precipitation over Europe.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Hosseinzadehtalaei P.,et al."Regionalization of anthropogenically forced changes in 3 hourly extreme precipitation over Europe".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).