气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Causes of climate change over the historical record

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab4557
	Causes of climate change over the historical record
	Hegerl G.C.; Brönnimann S.; Cowan T.; Friedman A.R.; Hawkins E.; Iles C.; Müller W.; Schurer A.; Undorf S.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	This review addresses the causes of observed climate variations across the industrial period, from 1750 to present. It focuses on long-term changes, both in response to external forcing and to climate variability in the ocean and atmosphere. A synthesis of results from attribution studies based on palaeoclimatic reconstructions covering the recent few centuries to the 20th century, and instrumental data shows how greenhouse gases began to cause warming since the beginning of industrialization, causing trends that are attributable to greenhouse gases by 1900 in proxy-based temperature reconstructions. Their influence increased over time, dominating recent trends. However, other forcings have caused substantial deviations from this emerging greenhouse warming trend: volcanic eruptions have caused strong cooling following a period of unusually heavy activity, such as in the early 19th century; or warming during periods of low activity, such as in the early-to-mid 20th century. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing most likely masked some global greenhouse warming over the 20th century, especially since the accelerated increase in sulphate aerosol emissions starting around 1950. Based on modelling and attribution studies, aerosol forcing has also influenced regional temperatures, caused long-term changes in monsoons and imprinted on Atlantic variability. Multi-decadal variations in atmospheric modes can also cause long-term climate variability, as apparent for the example of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and have influenced Atlantic ocean variability. Long-term precipitation changes are more difficult to attribute to external forcing due to spatial sparseness of data and noisiness of precipitation changes, but the observed pattern of precipitation response to warming from station data supports climate model simulated changes and with it, predictions. The long-term warming has also led to significant differences in daily variability as, for example, visible in long European station data. Extreme events over the historical record provide valuable samples of possible extreme events and their mechanisms. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	attribution; climate change; extreme events; instrumental record; precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aerosols; Atmospheric pressure; Climate models; Greenhouse gases; Greenhouses; Precipitation (chemical); Sulfur compounds; Volcanoes; Anthropogenic aerosols; attribution; Extreme events; instrumental record; Long-term climate variability; North Atlantic oscillations; Response to external forcing; Temperature reconstruction; Climate change; atmosphere-ocean system; climate change; climate forcing; climate modeling; climate variation; extreme event; global warming; greenhouse gas; historical record; instrumentation; long-term change; North Atlantic Oscillation; paleoclimate; precipitation (climatology); proxy climate record; reconstruction; twentieth century
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154278
作者单位	School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; University of Southern Queensland and Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, F-91198, France; Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hegerl G.C.,Brönnimann S.,Cowan T.,et al. Causes of climate change over the historical record[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Hegerl G.C..,Brönnimann S..,Cowan T..,Friedman A.R..,Hawkins E..,...&Undorf S..(2019).Causes of climate change over the historical record.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Hegerl G.C.,et al."Causes of climate change over the historical record".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).