气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Leading source and constraint on the systematic spread of the changes in East Asian and western North Pacific summer monsoon

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab547c
	Leading source and constraint on the systematic spread of the changes in East Asian and western North Pacific summer monsoon
	Zhou S.; Huang P.; Huang G.; Hu K.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	With ongoing global warming, the changes in EA-WNPSM rainfall-feeding over two billion people in East Asia and the Indochina Peninsula-projected by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models show remarkable and unidentified inter-model spread. Here, we reveal the leading inter-model spread of EA-WNPSM changes in 28 CMIP5 models is related to a 'dry north-wet south' dipole in East Asia and a wet Indochina and WNP. This spread pattern of EA-WNPSM changes is induced by the spread of sea surface temperature changes in the equatorial western Pacific, and can be further traced back to an apparent discrepancy among the state-of-the-art models in simulating the tropical Pacific rainfall. An air-sea coupling processes involved with summer background circulation contribute to this robust spread pattern of EA-WNPSM changes. We can constrain the EA-WNPSM rainfall changes based on the current-future relationship and observation that there should be more rainfall increase in North China and the Korean Peninsula and less increase in South China, the Indochina Peninsula and WNP, relative to previous multi-model ensemble projections. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Cmip5; East asian and western north pacific summer monsoon; Emergent constraint; Global warming; Inter-model uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric thermodynamics; Climate models; Global warming; Oceanography; Submarine geophysics; Surface waters; Uncertainty analysis; Cmip5; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Emergent constraint; Indochina Peninsula; Model uncertainties; Multi-model ensemble; Sea-surface temperature change; Western north pacific summer monsoons; Rain; atmosphere-ocean coupling; CMIP; monsoon; rainfall; sea surface temperature; summer; Far East; Indochina; Korea; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154269
作者单位	State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China; Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling, Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266237, China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS), Beijing, 100875, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou S.,Huang P.,Huang G.,et al. Leading source and constraint on the systematic spread of the changes in East Asian and western North Pacific summer monsoon[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Zhou S.,Huang P.,Huang G.,&Hu K..(2019).Leading source and constraint on the systematic spread of the changes in East Asian and western North Pacific summer monsoon.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Zhou S.,et al."Leading source and constraint on the systematic spread of the changes in East Asian and western North Pacific summer monsoon".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).