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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab57de
	Climate change impacts the spread potential of wheat stem rust, a significant crop disease
	Prank M.; Kenaley S.C.; Bergstrom G.C.; Acevedo M.; Mahowald N.M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Long range atmospheric transport is an important pathway for the spread of plant pathogens, such as rust fungi which can devastate cereal crop health and food security worldwide. In recent years, serious concern has been caused by the evolution of new virulent races of Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici, a pathogen causing wheat stem rust that can result in close to 100% yield losses on susceptible wheat cultivars in favourable weather conditions. We applied an Earth system model to compare the suitability of the current climate and a business-as-usual climate scenario (RCP 8.5) for 2100 for wheat stem rust. Although there are large uncertainties in modelling changes in disease spread, we focus in this paper on the changes which are likely to be robust to model assumptions. We show that the warmer climate with lower relative humidity and enhanced turbulence will lead to ∼40% increase in the urediniospore emitting potential of an infected field as global average. The main predicted changes in the atmospheric long-range transport include reduced connections between Europe, Africa and South Asia, and increased frequency of spores crossing the mid-latitude oceans. Due to reduction in subfreezing conditions, the overwintering areas of the fungus will expand. On the other hand, projected drier conditions will reduce substantially the probability of an infection starting from deposited spores, except in irrigated fields. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Atmospheric long-range transport; Climate change; Crop disease; Earth system modelling; Food security; Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici; Wheat stem rust
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric humidity; Atmospheric movements; Climate models; Crops; Food supply; Plants (botany); Uncertainty analysis; Crop disease; Earth systems; Food security; Long range transport; Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici; Wheat stem rusts; Climate change; atmospheric transport; climate change; disease incidence; food security; fungus; overwintering; relative humidity; rust disease; turbulence; wheat; Africa; Europe; South Asia; Fungi; Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici; Triticum aestivum; Uredinales
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154265
作者单位	Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; School of Integrative Plant Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Prank M.,Kenaley S.C.,Bergstrom G.C.,et al. Climate change impacts the spread potential of wheat stem rust, a significant crop disease[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Prank M.,Kenaley S.C.,Bergstrom G.C.,Acevedo M.,&Mahowald N.M..(2019).Climate change impacts the spread potential of wheat stem rust, a significant crop disease.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Prank M.,et al."Climate change impacts the spread potential of wheat stem rust, a significant crop disease".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).