气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °c warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °c level

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab5199
	Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °c warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °c level
	Tachiiri K.; Silva Herran D.; Su X.; Kawamiya M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	An Earth system model (ESM) was used to investigate the effect of reaching the target of 1.5 °C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) after overshooting to the 2 °C level with respect to selected global environment indicators. Two scenarios were compared that diverged after reaching the 2 °C level: One stayed at the 2 °C level, and the other cooled to the 1.5 °C level. Unlike the internationally coordinated model intercomparison projects, the scenarios were developed for a specific climatic model with emissions and land use scenarios consistent with socioeconomic projections from an integrated assessment model. The ESM output resulted in delayed realization of the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets expected for 2100. The cumulative CO2 emissions for 2010-2100 (2300) were 358 (-53) GtCO2 in the 2 °C scenario and-337 (-936) GtCO2 in the 1.5 °C scenario. We examined the effect of overshooting on commonly used indicators related to surface air temperature, sea surface temperature and total ocean heat uptake. Global vegetation productivity at 2100 showed around a 5% increase in the 2 °C scenario without overshooting compared with the 1.5 °C scenario with overshooting, considered to be caused by more precipitation and stronger CO2 fertilization. A considerable difference was found between the two scenarios in terms of Arctic sea ice, whereas both scenarios indicated few corals would survive past the 21st century. The difference in steric sea level rise, reflecting total cumulative ocean heat uptake, between the two scenarios was <2 cm in 2100, and around 9 cm in 2300 in the Pacific Island region. A large overshoot may reduce the eventual difference between targets (i.e. 1.5 °C in contrast to 2 °C), particularly in terms of the indicators related to total ocean heat uptake, and to sensitive biological thresholds. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	1.5°ctarget; 2°ctarget; Earth system model; Integrated assessment model; Overshoot; Stabilization
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Economics; Land use; Sea ice; Sea level; Stabilization; Surface waters; Biological thresholds; Earth system model; Integrated assessment models; Overshoot; Pre-industrial levels; Sea surface temperature (SST); Surface air temperatures; Vegetation productivity; Atmospheric temperature; air temperature; climate modeling; cooling; global warming; heat balance; sea ice; sea level change; socioeconomic status; Arctic; Anthozoa
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154261
作者单位	Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showamachi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan; Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, 2108-11 Kamiyamaguchi, Hayama, Kanagawa, 240-0115, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tachiiri K.,Silva Herran D.,Su X.,et al. Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °c warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °c level[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Tachiiri K.,Silva Herran D.,Su X.,&Kawamiya M..(2019).Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °c warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °c level.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Tachiiri K.,et al."Effect on the Earth system of realizing a 1.5 °c warming climate target after overshooting to the 2 °c level".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).