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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab57d3
	Increase of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions with decreasing CO2 concentration scenarios
	Tachiiri K.; Hajima T.; Kawamiya M.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Near-constancy of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) facilitates the development of future emission pathways compatible with temperature targets. However, most studies have explored TCRE under scenarios of temperature increase. We used an Earth system model (MIROC-ESM) to examine TCRE in scenarios with increasing and stable CO2 concentrations, as well as overshoot pathways in which global mean temperatures peak and decline. Results showed that TCRE is stable under scenarios of increasing or stable CO2 concentration at an atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2) double the pre-industrial level. However, in the case of overshoot pathways and a stable pCO2 scenario at a quadrupled pCO2 level, the TCRE increases by 10%-50%, with large increases over a short period just after pCO2 starts to decrease. During the period of pCO2 increase, annual ocean heat uptake (OHU) and ocean carbon storage (CO) (or cumulative ocean carbon uptake from the start of the experiment) exhibit similar changes, resulting in a stable TCRE. During the pCO2 decrease period, after a sudden TCRE increase when pCO2 starts to decrease, the OHU decreases and CO increases (relative to the pCO2 increase period) balance each other out, resulting in a stable TCRE. In overshoot pathways, the temperature distribution when the global mean temperature anomaly cools to 1.5 °C reveals small warming over land and large warming over the oceans relative to the 1% per annum pCO2 increasing scenario, particularly in some high-latitude areas of both hemispheres. The increase in TCRE with overshoot pathways decreases the carbon budget for the temperature anomaly targets in such scenarios. Our analysis showed a 16%-35% decrease in the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5 °C global warming target, in comparison with the reference scenario with a 1% per year pCO2 increase, for pathways peaking at the doubled pCO2 level followed by decline to the pre-industrial level. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Carbon budget; Earth system modeling; Overshoot pathways; Transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Budget control; Carbon dioxide; Earth (planet); Forestry; Global warming; Oceanography; Carbon budgets; Climate response; Earth system model; Global-mean temperature; Overshoot pathways; Pre-industrial levels; Temperature anomaly; Temperature increase; Transient analysis; carbon budget; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; carbon storage; climate modeling; concentration (composition); global warming; temperature anomaly
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154253
作者单位	Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showamachi, Kanazawa-k,Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tachiiri K.,Hajima T.,Kawamiya M.. Increase of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions with decreasing CO2 concentration scenarios[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Tachiiri K.,Hajima T.,&Kawamiya M..(2019).Increase of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions with decreasing CO2 concentration scenarios.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Tachiiri K.,et al."Increase of the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions with decreasing CO2 concentration scenarios".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).