气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Cognition of complexity and trade-offs in a wildfire-prone social-ecological system

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab59c1
	Cognition of complexity and trade-offs in a wildfire-prone social-ecological system
	Hamilton M.; Salerno J.; Fischer A.P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Wildfire risk is a defining environmental challenge throughout much of the American West, as well as in other regions where complex social and ecological dynamics defy simple policy or management solutions. In such settings, diverse forms of land use, livelihoods, and accompanying values provide the conditions for trade-offs (e.g. between protecting homes from uncontrollable fires and restoring low-severity fire to ecosystems as a natural disturbance process). Addressing wildfire risk requires grappling with these trade-offs at multiple levels-given the need for action by individuals as well as by large and diverse stakeholder groups- A nd under conditions of considerable complexity. We evaluated how individual and collective perception of trade-offs varies as a function of complexity through analysis of the cognitive maps-representations of perceived causal relationships among factors that structure an individual's understanding of a system-of 111 stakeholders in the Eastern Cascades Ecoregion of central Oregon. Bayesian statistical analysis revealed a strong tendency against perception of trade-offs in individual maps, but not in a collective map that resulted from the aggregation of all individual cognitive maps. Furthermore, we found that lags (the number of factors that mediated the effect of an action on multiple valued outcomes) limited perception of trade-offs. Each additional intervening factor decreased the likelihood of a trade-off by approximately 52% in individual cognitive maps and by 10% in the collective cognitive map. However, the heterogeneity of these factors increased the likelihood of perception of trade-offs, particularly among individual cognitive maps, for which each unit increase of the Shannon diversity index translated into a 20-fold increase in the likelihood of perception of trade-offs. Taken together, these results suggest that features of complexity have distinct effects on individual- A nd collective-level perception of trade-offs. We discuss implications for wildfire risk decision-making in central Oregon and in other complex wildfire-prone social-ecological systems. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Cognitive maps; Complexity; Oregon; Trade-offs; Wildfire
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Cognitive systems; Decision making; Ecology; Fires; Land use; Cognitive maps; Complexity; Oregon; Trade off; Wildfire; Economic and social effects; Bayesian analysis; cognition; complexity; diversity index; heterogeneity; nature-society relations; perception; social behavior; statistical analysis; trade-off; wildfire; Cascade Range; Oregon; United States
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154240
作者单位	School of Environment and Natural Resources, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States; Department of Human Dimensions of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hamilton M.,Salerno J.,Fischer A.P.. Cognition of complexity and trade-offs in a wildfire-prone social-ecological system[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Hamilton M.,Salerno J.,&Fischer A.P..(2019).Cognition of complexity and trade-offs in a wildfire-prone social-ecological system.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Hamilton M.,et al."Cognition of complexity and trade-offs in a wildfire-prone social-ecological system".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).