气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Using out-of-sample yield forecast experiments to evaluate which earth observation products best indicate end of season maize yields

CCPortal

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab5ccd
	Using out-of-sample yield forecast experiments to evaluate which earth observation products best indicate end of season maize yields
	Davenport F.M.; Harrison L.; Shukla S.; Husak G.; Funk C.; McNally A.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	17489318
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	In East Africa, accurate grain yield predictions can help save lives and protect livelihoods. Regional grain yield forecasts can inform decisions regarding the availability and prices of key staples, food aid, and large humanitarian responses. Here, we use earth observation (EO) products to develop and evaluate subnational grain yield forecasts for 56 regions located in two severely food insecure countries: Kenya and Somalia. We identify, for a given region and time of year, which, if any, product is the best indicator for end-of-season maize yields. Our analysis seeks to inform a real-world situation in which analysts have access to multiple regularly updated EO data products, but predictive skill corresponding to each may vary across these regions and throughout the season. We find that the most accurate predictions can be made for high-producing areas, but that the relationship between production and forecast accuracy diminishes in areas with yields averaging greater than one metric ton per hectare. However, while forecast accuracy is highest in high production areas, in many of these regions, the forecast accuracy of models using EO products is not better than a set of baseline models that do not use EO products. Overall, we find that rainfall is the best indicator in low-producing regions and that other EO products work best in areas where yields are relatively consistent, but production is still limited by environmental factors. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	Earth observations; Food security; Yield forecasting
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Food supply; Observatories; Accurate prediction; Earth observation products; Earth observations; Environmental factors; Food security; Forecast accuracy; Real world situations; Yield forecasting; Forecasting; accuracy assessment; crop yield; environmental factor; food security; humanitarian aid; maize; prediction; Kenya; Somalia; Zea mays
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154220
作者单位	Climate Hazards Center, University of California, Santa Barbara, United States; United States Geological Survey, United States; Usaid Office of Food for Peace, Washington, DC, United States; Saic Inc, Reston, VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Davenport F.M.,Harrison L.,Shukla S.,et al. Using out-of-sample yield forecast experiments to evaluate which earth observation products best indicate end of season maize yields[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Davenport F.M.,Harrison L.,Shukla S.,Husak G.,Funk C.,&McNally A..(2019).Using out-of-sample yield forecast experiments to evaluate which earth observation products best indicate end of season maize yields.Environmental Research Letters,14(12).
MLA	Davenport F.M.,et al."Using out-of-sample yield forecast experiments to evaluate which earth observation products best indicate end of season maize yields".Environmental Research Letters 14.12(2019).