气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab666c
	Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands
	Haasnoot M.; Kwadijk J.; Van Alphen J.; Le Bars D.; Van Den Hurk B.; Diermanse F.; Van Der Spek A.; Oude Essink G.; Delsman J.; Mens M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	17489318
卷号	15 期号:3
英文摘要	Uncertainties in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise (SLR) complicate decision making on coastal adaptation. Large uncertainty arises from potential ice mass-loss from Antarctica that could rapidly increase SLR in the second half of this century. The implications of SLR may be existential for a low-lying country like the Netherlands and warrant exploration of high-impact low-likelihood scenarios. To deal with uncertain SLR, the Netherlands has adopted an adaptive pathways plan. This paper analyzes the implications of storylines leading to extreme SLR for the current adaptive plan in the Netherlands, focusing on flood risk, fresh water resources, and coastline management. It further discusses implications for coastal adaptation in low-lying coastal zones considering timescales of adaptation including the decisions lifetime and lead-in time for preparation and implementation. We find that as sea levels rise faster and higher, sand nourishment volumes to maintain the Dutch coast may need to be up to 20 times larger than to date in 2100, storm surge barriers will need to close at increasing frequency until closed permanently, and intensified saltwater intrusion will reduce freshwater availability while the demand is rising. The expected lifetime of investments will reduce drastically. Consequently, step-wise adaptation needs to occur at an increasing frequency or with larger increments while there is still large SLR uncertainty with the risk of under- or overinvesting. Anticipating deeply uncertain, high SLR scenarios helps to enable timely adaptation and to appreciate the value of emission reduction and monitoring of the Antarctica contribution to SLR. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
英文关键词	adaptation pathways; Antarctica; coastal adaptation; decision making; deep uncertainty; sea-level rise
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Coastal zones; Decision making; Emission control; Floods; Salt water intrusion; Shore protection; Water; adaptation pathways; Antarctica; coastal adaptation; Deep uncertainties; Sea level rise; Sea level; adaptive management; beach nourishment; coastal zone management; decision making; ecological impact; exploration; investment; sea level change; strategic approach; timescale; uncertainty analysis; Antarctica; Netherlands
来源期刊	Environmental Research Letters
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/154212
作者单位	Deltares, Delft, Netherlands; Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands; The Hague, Netherlands; KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; Institute for Environmental Studies Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Haasnoot M.,Kwadijk J.,Van Alphen J.,et al. Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands[J],2020,15(3).
APA	Haasnoot M..,Kwadijk J..,Van Alphen J..,Le Bars D..,Van Den Hurk B..,...&Mens M..(2020).Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands.Environmental Research Letters,15(3).
MLA	Haasnoot M.,et al."Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands".Environmental Research Letters 15.3(2020).